Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 18 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $100.07/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a notable step down from the elevated overnight band that ran between $200–$340/MWh from roughly 23:00 to 14:00 AEST. The 24-hour average across the price history dataset sits comfortably above $170/MWh, making the current level a meaningful relief for load-side participants. Total demand is 6,614 MW, well below the morning peak of 8,134 MW recorded around 17:55 AEST. The generation mix at this interval is dominated by black coal at 4,144 MW (62.6% of output), with gas OCGT contributing 934 MW (14.1%), wind 853 MW (12.9%), battery 144 MW (2.2%), hydro 131 MW (2.0%), and solar a negligible 0.6 MW as daylight has ended. Renewables are contributing 18.2% of generation at this interval, down sharply from the overnight high of 45.4% when wind carried a larger share of a lower-demand mix.

Carbon intensity sits at 0.6853 tCO2/MWh — the highest point in today's dataset — reflecting the evening-into-night profile where solar has exited and coal and gas are carrying the bulk of load. The intensity peaked near 0.71–0.71 tCO2/MWh across the 17:30–18:30 AEST window before easing fractionally. This contrasts with the overnight low of 0.44 tCO2/MWh recorded around 10:00–10:30 AEST when wind penetration ran above 45%. Today's overcast conditions (100% cloud cover, 18.6°C) have suppressed solar output entirely, and tomorrow's outlook remains largely cloudy with an average solar potential of just 0.2 and minimal wind potential of 2.7, suggesting wind will again be the primary variable renewable contributor during daylight hours.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) have converged sharply from an early estimate of $441.83/MWh down to $111.11/MWh in the most recent run, signalling that the market has found adequate supply cover for the next trading period. The 07:30–10:30 AEST window shows load window prices clustering in the $65–$105/MWh range, consistent with a low overnight demand profile. Prices are expected to remain soft through the early morning hours before the morning demand ramp, with the cheapest load windows appearing between 11:00 and 13:00 AEST at $64–$70/MWh. Flexibility managers should note this window as optimal for discretionary load scheduling.

The most operationally significant active notice for Queensland today is Market Notice 144109, which carries a Forecast LOR1 condition for QLD on 19 May 2026 from 06:00 to 19:30 AEST, with minimum reserve available (1,012 MW) falling below the forecast requirement (1,197 MW). A secondary LOR1 window is flagged from 21:30 to 22:00 AEST. AEMO cancelled a prior LOR1 for 18 May at 10:15 AEST after reserve conditions improved, but the forward notice for today remains active. A QLD