Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 17 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $214.07/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 6,574 MW. This is a firmly elevated price relative to the overnight trough — prices bottomed near $39.71/MWh in the early hours of this morning (around 01:50–02:00 AEST) before climbing sharply through the morning peak, touching $231.70/MWh at 17:00 AEST and $239.95/MWh as recently as 06:30 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic weekday shape with a pronounced morning ramp from approximately 15:00 UTC (01:00 AEST) onwards, sustaining well above $150/MWh through most of the business day window.

The current generation mix (as at 06:20 AEST) totals approximately 3,949 MW of dispatched output across reported sources: black coal is supplying 2,132 MW (54% of the reported mix), gas OCGT 846 MW (21%), wind 797 MW (20%), hydro 131 MW (3%), battery 44 MW (1%), and solar a negligible 0.12 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Renewables — wind, hydro, solar, and battery — are collectively contributing approximately 972 MW, or around 24.6% of the mix, consistent with the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.6142 tCO2/MWh. That intensity figure represents a significant step up from the overnight low of 0.2946 tCO2/MWh recorded around 10:30 AEST on Sunday, when wind penetration was above 65%, and reflects the morning demand surge drawing on dispatchable thermal capacity. Today's 100% cloud cover eliminates any solar contribution until conditions clear; the daily outlook shows overcast conditions persisting all day with near-zero solar potential, meaning solar will not provide the mid-afternoon relief seen on clearer autumn days.

The predispatch price signal for the next several hours is unambiguously elevated and escalating. Forecasts for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) sit in the $230–$297/MWh range across recent predispatch runs, with the 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) window forecast between $230–$339/MWh. Morning peak windows from 09:00 AEST onwards carry forecasts of $290–$497/MWh, with the 17:00–20:00 AEST window (03:00–06:00 UTC 18 May) showing the most aggressive signals — multiple predispatch runs are returning $338–$496/MWh for the 16:00–16:30 AEST window. The grid stress score of 81.9 out of 100 reflects this tight supply-demand balance.

The most critical active market notice is AEMO's Forecast LOR1 for Queensland from 17:00 to 19:00 AEST today (Market Notice 144108, updated via 144113): the minimum capacity reserve available is forecast at 1,014 MW against a requirement of 1,194 MW — a shortfall of 180 MW. A separate LOR1 condition also applies to Queensland on 19 May 2026 from 06:00 to 19:30 AEST, per Market Notice 144109. A non