Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 15 May 2026

The spot price sits at $104.51/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,019 MW. Tracing the price history over the past 24 hours reveals a clear intraday structure: prices were elevated around $107/MWh in the evening, fell to a trough of $62–$75/MWh through the early hours (02:00–09:00 AEST), held a sustained mid-band of $96/MWh through the day, spiked briefly to $138.93/MWh at 01:10 AEST, and are now back above $104/MWh as the late-evening demand ramp is underway. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the low-to-mid $90s/MWh, meaning the current price is running roughly $10–$15/MWh above that average — driven by evening demand rising from a Saturday low of around 930 MW back through the 1,000 MW threshold.

The generation mix at the most recent dispatch interval (06:30 AEST) consists of hydro at 864 MW and wind at 226 MW, with the gas OCGT sitting at zero. That gives a total metered output of approximately 1,090 MW across local generation, with the balance of supply and demand mediated through the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1). Renewable penetration registers at 100%, with hydro and wind together covering all local dispatch requirements and carbon intensity recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh — a figure that has held at zero across every interval in the carbon history dataset, spanning from yesterday evening through to now. Wind is contributing 226 MW, or roughly 21% of local generation, with hydro providing the remaining 79%.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are tightly grouped around $96–$106/MWh, with the most recent run (06:01 AEST) pointing to $98.20/MWh — a modest step down from the current print. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast materially higher, with the most recent available predispatch runs clustering between $106 and $113/MWh, suggesting the market is pricing in further demand uplift as the Saturday evening load ramp progresses. Overnight intervals from 07:30 AEST through to the early hours of Sunday 17 May are forecast in the $88–$96/MWh range, with a gradual drift lower as demand eases into the Sunday off-peak. Weather conditions are not supportive of additional wind output today — 11 km/h winds at Hobart with a wind potential score of 2.1 — though tomorrow's outlook improves to an average wind potential of 3.6. No active market notices directly affect TAS1 operations today; the notices in the feed relate primarily to SA voltage directions (now cancelled), a NSW non-conformance on LYA2 and BW04, and historical Tasmanian lightning reclassifications from early May that have all since been resolved.

Traders should watch the 07:30–08:00 AEST window closely. Predispatch is flagging a potential step up to $106–$113/MWh in that half-hour, and with Basslink flows and hydro dispatch being the primary price-setting levers in Tasmania, any tightening on the Victorian side — or a change in interconnector scheduling —