Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 15 May 2026
The spot price in South Australia sits at $138/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, up sharply from the $50–$80/MWh range that dominated the morning trading session and well above the low-teens to negative prices recorded in the overnight wind window between roughly 13:30 and 15:30 AEST. The evening ramp is clearly the driver: prices began escalating through the 04:45–05:00 AEST band, spiking to $175.97/MWh at 05:40 AEST before settling back to the current $138/MWh level. Total demand sits at 1,266 MW — relatively modest for SA at this hour, which suggests the price elevation is being driven by tightening synchronous capacity rather than a demand surge. The most recent predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour confirm this is expected to persist, with the 06:01 AEST predispatch run pricing the 07:00 AEST interval at $138/MWh.
The generation mix at the 06:30 AEST trading interval shows wind contributing 817.83 MW, gas OCGT at 128.5 MW, gas CCGT at 58 MW, and battery at 27.36 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the post-sunset period and 99% cloud cover at 14.9°C. Wind is carrying the bulk of supply, delivering an 81.92% renewable penetration share. Carbon intensity sits at 0.1085 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the near-zero readings recorded through the overnight period (as low as 0.0099 tCO2/MWh around 08:00 AEST) as gas plant has been dispatched to supplement voltage support. The trajectory through today saw intensity rise from sub-0.01 tCO2/MWh levels overnight to a peak of around 0.0994 tCO2/MWh at approximately 19:25 AEST before the current 0.1085 tCO2/MWh reading.
The voltage support interventions are the key context for today's pricing. AEMO directed AGL's Barker Inlet Power Station to synchronise for voltage control at 15:55 AEST (Market Notice 144087), with that direction cancelled at 16:35 AEST (MN 144089). This mirrors a pattern seen on 14 May and 6 May where low synchronous machine counts in SA — a direct consequence of high asynchronous wind penetration — required directed plant to maintain system security. The HPR1 (Hornsdale Power Reserve) non-conformance event on 14 May (MN 144076, +79 MW against dispatch target) is also on the active notice board. Traders should note that with wind potential forecast to drop materially over 17–22 May (avg wind potential falling to 0.3 or below by 17 May), gas dispatch requirements will increase, which should support higher prices through the coming week relative to today's overnight lows.
Predispatch indicates a sharp retreat from current levels: the 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $138/MWh, but the 07:30 AEST interval drops to approximately $20/MWh in the latest runs, with prices through the 08:00–10:30 AEST window clustering in the low-to-negative