Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 15 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $82.50/MWh with total demand at 5,923 MW as of 06:35 AEST. Tracking back through the last 24 hours reveals a pronounced overnight trough — prices briefly went negative (reaching -$2.26/MWh) in the early hours before recovering — and a sharp morning ramp that pushed prices into the $91–$92/MWh range around 17:30–18:00 AEST before easing to current levels. The generation mix at the most recent trading interval shows black coal at 2,120 MW, wind at 1,226 MW, hydro at 130 MW, gas OCGT at 122 MW, battery at 91 MW, and solar at just 3 MW — consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewables are contributing 39.3% of generation at present, down from a peak of around 72% during the low-demand overnight window when wind carried a heavier share of the load.

Carbon intensity stands at 0.527 tCO2/MWh, its highest point in the 24-hour dataset and a significant step up from the overnight low of 0.240 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30–10:00 AEST. The pattern reflects the classic May evening profile: solar generation has ceased, wind output is solid at 1,226 MW but insufficient to offset the coal-heavy baseload serving the evening demand build. With temperatures currently at 14.4°C and a heating demand signal of 3.6, the weekend Saturday profile should see demand track lower than weekday peaks — today's maximum is forecast at 23.4°C, which will suppress heating demand through the afternoon but won't drive significant cooling load.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price step-down through the remainder of the morning. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $82.50/MWh, consistent with current clearing, before the 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) is expected to ease to the $66–$73/MWh range across multiple predispatch runs. Prices are then forecast to fall further to the $40–$52/MWh band through the 08:00–09:00 AEST window, and into the low-to-mid $30s by 09:00–09:30 AEST. The 10:00 AEST window (00:00 UTC) carries forecasts as low as -$1.92/MWh in some runs, suggesting solar generation will push prices to floor levels by mid-morning as the Saturday demand profile keeps load subdued. Traders positioning flexible load should note the favourable window opening from approximately 08:30–11:30 AEST.

No market notices directly affecting QLD1 operations are active today. The most recent QLD-specific notice (144074) relates to the resolution of a non-credible contingency event at Ingham South transformers on 13 May, which AEMO has confirmed will not be reclassified. A Directlink No. 2 Leg outage affecting the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector returned to service at 14:10 AEST on 15 May (notice 144085), restoring the N-MBTE_1 constraint set and normalising the NSW–QLD transfer corridor — a relevant factor for any cross-border flow positions. The MT PASA reserve notice of