Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 14 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $107.85/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with demand at 1,162 MW and rising as the morning ramp progresses. Scanning the past 24 hours of trading intervals, prices have been remarkably stable, anchored predominantly in the $106–$108/MWh band with only isolated spikes breaking through — notably $243.97/MWh at 07:30 AEST and a cluster of intervals touching $155–$175/MWh across two separate windows. Strip out those outliers and the base price signal is essentially flat, reflecting a well-supplied market with a predictable floor driven by Basslink dynamics and hydro dispatch economics.
The generation mix is 100% renewable at the latest interval. Hydro is contributing 1,060 MW and wind 167 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh and has been recorded at 0 tCO2/MWh continuously since approximately 07:30 AEST yesterday, with only trace intensity (0.025–0.030 tCO2/MWh, ~95–96% renewable penetration) recorded in the brief windows before that. Today's 100% renewable penetration is consistent with autumn hydro storage conditions and moderate wind. Current temperature is 7.6°C with full cloud cover and a heating demand index of 10.4, which supports demand through the morning peak — demand has climbed from a daytime trough of around 945 MW back to 1,162 MW over the past two hours and will likely continue rising into the early evening peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to a stable price outcome for the remainder of today. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $106.20/MWh across all forecast runs from 12:30 AEST through to the latest available run, with no upward revision — a strong signal of consensus around the current price floor. The 07:30 AEST half-hour carries a marginally higher forecast of $106.64/MWh in most runs, with one run printing $116.26/MWh, suggesting a low-probability but non-zero risk of a brief price excursion into that period if dispatch tightens. Load window data through to 14:00–15:00 AEST shows prices easing into the $75–$88/MWh range overnight, consistent with lower demand and hydro backing off.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania's dispatch today. The most recent TAS-specific notices on file relate to contingency reclassifications from early May involving the Sheffield–George Town 220 kV lines and several 110 kV circuits in the north-west — all now resolved. An active NSW non-conformance notice covers unit BW04 (−28 MW, 11:30–11:40 AEST today) and a separate SA direction and cancellation sequence from earlier this morning are noted in the broader NEM notice register, but neither carries a direct TAS1 constraint impact. The MT PASA reserve notice published 12 May confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are currently identified for Tasmania or any region.