Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 14 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $101.83/MWh against total demand of 6,627 MW as of 06:35 AEST. Tracking price history across the past 24 hours, the region traded as low as $0.03/MWh in the early hours overnight (around 09:40 AEST yesterday) before climbing sharply through the morning peak, reaching $233.01/MWh at the 17:55 AEST interval. Prices have since eased materially from that morning spike, with the current $101.83/MWh sitting broadly in line with the pre-dawn ramp-up range but well below the sustained $200+/MWh cluster seen between roughly 17:55 and 19:15 AEST. Today's 24-hour volume-weighted average across the available history sits well above $100/MWh, driven by that extended high-price morning window.

The current generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal contributing 2,032 MW, wind at 1,372 MW, battery storage dispatching 393 MW, hydro at 131 MW, gas OCGT at 120 MW, and solar at just 0.4 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewables (wind, solar, hydro, battery) are collectively contributing approximately 1,897 MW, representing 46.83% of supply per the latest carbon interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.4611 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.2272 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST yesterday when wind and battery penetration peaked above 73%. The intensity has risen steadily as morning demand climbed and the renewable share contracted from that overnight high toward the current level.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval have been volatile throughout the day, ranging from a low of $84.66/MWh early this morning to a high of $518.70/MWh in one mid-morning run, before settling back to $90.75/MWh in the most recent forecast issued at 06:01 AEST. The 07:30 AEST predispatch also points to $90.75/MWh. This convergence suggests the market anticipates prices moderating from current levels as demand begins its morning descent from the 7,655–7,793 MW peak recorded between 17:30 and 17:55 AEST. Load window data confirms deep overnight troughs ahead, with multiple intervals from 08:30 AEST onward forecast below $10/MWh and several negative-price windows expected from approximately 09:00 AEST — mirroring the pattern seen overnight.

The only active market notice directly relevant to Queensland is Market Notice 144073/144074, which reported a non-credible contingency event on 13 May involving the T157 Ingham South No.1 and No.2 132/66 kV transformers tripping at 12:55 AEST; both units were returned to service at 13:41 AEST and AEMO confirmed the event will not be reclassified as credible. A separate non-conformance notice (144082) applies to unit BW04 in NSW for a brief 10-minute window early this morning (01:30–01:40 AEST), which carries indirect relevance given the NSW–