Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 13 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $106.24/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,134 MW and rising through the evening peak. Tracing the past 24 hours, prices were anchored at $96.24/MWh through most of the day before stepping up to the $106.24/MWh range from around 04:30 AEST, where they have held with consistency. The single notable intraday spike was a brief $164.06/MWh interval at approximately 10:50 AEST, which resolved within one dispatch period. The current price is running roughly $10/MWh above the dominant daytime band, reflecting the normal evening demand uplift as temperatures sit at 6.1°C with a heating demand index of 11.9.
The generation mix at the latest trading interval (06:30 AEST) shows hydro at 1,049.94 MW, wind at 129.63 MW, and gas OCGT at 57.85 MW, for a combined output of approximately 1,237 MW against metered demand of 1,134 MW — implying net export via Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is active. Renewable penetration sits at 95.32%, with carbon intensity at 0.0304 tCO2/MWh. The gas OCGT volume is the primary driver of that non-zero intensity reading. Through much of the overnight and midday period, intensity was recorded at 0.0000 tCO2/MWh across multiple consecutive intervals, confirming the OCGT was offline during those windows and hydro plus wind covered all load.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours are tightly clustered at $106.26/MWh and $106.22–$106.24/MWh respectively, with no material deviation across the full run of forecast submissions dating back to early morning. This signals the market expects prices to hold in the $106/MWh range through at least the first two trading periods of the next trading day. Load window modelling identifies the cheapest intervals through tonight centred on the 10:00–11:30 AEST window (roughly $65–$71/MWh floor), suggesting a meaningful step-down once the evening peak clears. Grid stress is scored at 89.6, which warrants attention given the elevated hydro dispatch and active Basslink export posture.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 operations today. The most recent TAS1-specific notices relate to contingency reclassifications from early May — multiple 110 kV and 220 kV line events due to lightning, all subsequently cancelled with constraint sets revoked and classifications returned to non-credible. The MTPASA reserve notice published 12 May identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM, consistent with current TAS1 supply adequacy. The broader active notice set covers the SA Tailem Bend–South East 275 kV line (returned to service at 03:20 AEST) and two QLD contingency events, neither of which constrains Tasmanian dispatch or Basslink transfer capability directly.