Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 13 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $84.61/MWh at 06:05 AEST, with demand at 1,395 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. That current price is materially higher than the soft overnight trough — dispatch intervals between 00:45 and 03:00 AEST regularly printed below $20/MWh, with several intervals touching $10–12/MWh — reflecting the typical transition from low overnight demand to morning commercial load. The 24-hour price trend shows a clear three-phase structure: an elevated evening period (21:00–00:00 AEST) with multiple intervals between $103–$227/MWh, a deep overnight trough, and a morning recovery now under way.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is wind-dominant. Wind is generating 1,068 MW, gas OCGT 188 MW, gas CCGT 62 MW, and battery dispatch 8 MW. Solar contributes 0 MW, consistent with the overnight data timestamp. Wind accounts for approximately 81% of local generation at the metered interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.1152 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 81.13%, down slightly from the midday peak of 0.076 tCO2/MWh and 87%+ renewable share seen through the 13:00–18:00 AEST window, as gas dispatch has increased to meet morning demand growth. Total dispatchable gas output of 250 MW reflects the grid's response to rising demand with solar yet to contribute.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) converge tightly in a $74–$86/MWh range across the most recent runs, with the 06:01 AEST run printing $85.99/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) forecasts are more elevated, clustering around $86–$90/MWh across all runs from 00:01 through 05:31 AEST, signalling that the market expects demand to continue building through the morning peak. Weather supports this trajectory: today's outlook shows a mild maximum of 22.3°C with low cloud cover (16% average), which will allow moderate solar generation from approximately 08:00 AEST, providing some price relief through the middle of the day.

The one SA-relevant market notice worth flagging is the Tailem Bend – South East No.1 275 kV line outage (Market Notice 144075), which was a planned transmission outage running from 08:00–15:20 AEST on 13 May and has since been returned to service with constraint sets S-X_TBSE+BDBU and S-BC_CP revoked. The interconnector path between SA and Victoria is therefore operating without those constraints today. The MT PASA reserve notice (144070, published 12 May) identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM outlook horizon. Flexible load managers and large C&I consumers should note the load window data points to excellent price conditions from 08:30 AEST UTC (roughly 09:00–11:30 AEST local) where forecast interval prices drop back into the $9–$26/MWh range as solar generation ramps into a clear-sky morning.