Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $92.59/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with demand at 6,591 MW and rising through the morning peak. The 24-hour price profile shows a pronounced trough overnight — falling as low as $22.81/MWh between 09:05–09:10 AEST — before climbing sharply through the 06:30–07:00 AEST morning ramp, where prices briefly touched $103/MWh. The current level is broadly consistent with where prices settled during yesterday's equivalent morning period, confirming a stable but elevated demand-driven pattern. Grid stress scores are elevated at 89.6, reflecting tightening supply margins at this demand level.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal producing 1,797 MW, wind contributing 1,558 MW, battery storage dispatching 202 MW, hydro providing 176 MW, gas OCGT supplying 91 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.34 MW given pre-dawn conditions. Renewables — wind, hydro, battery, and solar combined — are contributing 50.63% of generation. Carbon intensity sits at 0.429 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of 0.237 tCO2/MWh recorded around 00:30–01:00 AEST when demand was lightest and wind output was proportionally higher. The intensity has been trending upward through the morning as demand rises and the generation mix shifts toward coal and gas. Weather conditions today are mild, with a current temperature of 14.1°C and low solar potential until mid-morning; the forecast maximum of 21.7°C means cooling demand will be minimal and no material demand spike is expected through the afternoon.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST half-hours point to prices in the $92–$93/MWh range, with the most recent forecast run (20:01 UTC, equivalent to 06:01 AEST) revising the 07:00 AEST target up to $96.35/MWh — indicating the market expects continued upward pressure as the morning peak develops. The forecast series for the 07:30 AEST period clusters around $90–$93/MWh across multiple runs, suggesting the peak is not expected to extend significantly beyond current levels before easing. Load optimisation windows signal that prices drop sharply from 08:00 AEST tonight, with multiple intervals forecast below $0/MWh through to approximately 12:30 AEST Thursday, presenting strong demand-shifting and battery charging opportunities.

Two QLD-relevant market notices remain active. AEMO issued a power system event notice (MN 144073/144074) after the T157 Ingham South No.1 and No.2 132/66 kV transformers tripped at 12:55 AEST yesterday, disconnecting approximately 6 MW of load. Both transformers were returned to service at 13:41 AEST and AEMO confirmed it will not reclassify the event as a credible contingency. Separately, a general notice (MN 144024) flagged that from 5 May 2026 AEMO increased the local dispatch cap for Very Fast Contingency FCAS in QLD from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where QLD islanding is considered credible — relevant context for