Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $96.24/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, broadly consistent with where prices have traded for most of the past 24 hours. The overnight session was firmer, with prices ranging between $106–$121/MWh from around 07:30 to 11:30 AEST before softening back to the $96 floor level that has dominated trading since mid-morning. A brief dip to $60.24/MWh at 15:00 AEST and isolated intervals down to $65–$78/MWh through the 14:30–15:40 AEST window were transient, with prices snapping back to $96.24/MWh within one to two dispatch intervals. Total demand sits at 1,163 MW, climbing through the early evening as expected for a cool autumn Wednesday — current temperature is 8.2°C with full cloud cover and a heating demand index of 9.8.

The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is producing 1,105 MW and wind is contributing 122 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh at the most recent interval. There was a brief deviation between approximately 14:30 and 20:30 AEST where gas OCGT dispatch lifted carbon intensity to a peak of around 0.038 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration dipped to 94%, before returning to a fully renewable dispatch position. GAS_OCGT output is back at zero MW at the current interval.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) target are anchored firmly at $96.24/MWh, with the most recent run at 06:01 AEST and all subsequent runs through to 06:31 AEST confirming that figure. Earlier predispatch runs from 02:30–04:30 AEST had flagged $150–$161/MWh for the same period, but those elevated forecasts were revised away completely by 05:00 AEST, consistent with the generation mix settling into a well-supplied position. Beyond 07:00 AEST, load window forecasts point to prices in the $86–$96/MWh range through the overnight and into the early morning of 14 May, with the lowest windows clustering around $86–$88/MWh between approximately 13:00 and 17:00 AEST tomorrow morning. No upward price pressure is signalled in the near-term predispatch horizon.

The most relevant active market notice for Tasmania is the MT PASA reserve notice (MN 144070, issued 11:35 AEST today), which confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified in the current MTPASA run — superseding the prior notice from 5 May. Traders should note the earlier STPASA LOR1 for Tasmania on 5 May (MN 144025) has been cancelled (MN 144027), and several contingency reclassification notices from late April and early May relating to Tasmanian 110–220 kV lines have all been resolved. There are no active network constraint or interconnector limit notices specific to TAS1 at this time. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) interconnector constraint set T-GTSH_N-2, which was