Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $86.39/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,378 MW. That price represents a notable step-up from the evening trough — prices fell into the $58–$71/MWh range between 18:00 and 20:00 AEST before climbing as the evening demand ramp progressed. The 24-hour session has been volatile, with prices spiking into the $160–$279/MWh range between roughly 10:30 and 11:30 AEST (UTC 00:30–01:30) during the overnight period before settling back through the morning. The current reading sits above the $65–$80/MWh band that dominated the afternoon but remains well below those overnight highs.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is wind-dominated: wind is producing 741.74 MW (approximately 53.8% of the 1,378 MW demand), gas OCGT is contributing 266.27 MW (19.3%), gas CCGT 119.48 MW (8.7%), and battery storage is dispatching 50.58 MW (3.7%). Solar is producing 0 MW, consistent with pre-sunrise conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 67.26% — down from a daytime peak of around 80% recorded in the 17:00–18:00 AEST window but substantially higher than the overnight nadir of approximately 2.5–4.5% seen around 13:30–14:00 AEST (UTC 03:30–04:00) when wind output was minimal and gas carried the load. Carbon intensity stands at 0.1966 tCO2/MWh, up from the session low of approximately 0.115 tCO2/MWh during the high-wind afternoon period, reflecting the increasing gas share as wind output eases into the evening ramp. The day's carbon intensity trajectory has tracked inversely with wind availability throughout the session.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are tightly clustered in the $78–$94/MWh range across multiple run times, with the most recent runs pointing to approximately $81–$83/MWh — suggesting moderate upward pressure consistent with the evening demand ramp but no expectation of a price spike. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) forecasts are higher, ranging $104–$122/MWh across earlier runs, though the most recent data available does not extend to that interval, so traders should treat the upper end of that range as a plausible tail risk as gas dispatch increases to cover the wind shortfall. Load window analysis confirms that the lowest-cost intervals of the trading day are forecast overnight between roughly 09:30 and 11:30 AEST (tomorrow's 23:30–01:30 UTC window), with multiple forecast prices in the $-25 to $20/MWh range — relevant for flexible industrial loads and battery charging schedules.

The most directly relevant active market notice for SA is AEMO's MT PASA Reserve Notice (144070, issued 12 May 2026), which identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the outlook horizon — system adequacy is not a concern for today. Of historical note, AEMO intervened in SA on 6 May 2026 via a direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 for voltage control