Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 11 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $106.24/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,152 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours, prices have oscillated between a floor of $88.20/MWh — briefly touched during the midday trough around 01:05–01:30 AEST — and an intraday peak of $115.64/MWh recorded at approximately 07:30 AEST. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the $98–100/MWh band, placing the current price modestly above that level as evening demand builds. The price structure reflects two distinct daily regimes: a sustained $96.24/MWh floor that dominates overnight and shoulder periods, and a step up to the $106–107/MWh range during morning and evening peaks — a tight, hydro-dominated dispatch stack with limited marginal price variability.
Tasmania's generation mix is 100% renewable at the current interval, with hydro contributing 735 MW and wind adding 53 MW against total scheduled generation of approximately 788 MW. Gas OCGT is offline at 0 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, sustained without interruption across every recorded interval in the past 24 hours. Temperature this morning is 10.7°C with 99% cloud cover, confirming zero solar potential and minimal wind resource (3.3 km/h) — hydro is carrying the entire local generation task. Heating demand at 7.3 heating degree units is consistent with typical Tasmanian autumn conditions and supports the sustained overnight baseload above 1,000 MW.
Predispatch forecasts for the next trading periods point to $96.24/MWh at the 07:00 AEST half-hour, easing back from the current $106.24/MWh as the morning peak subsides, before settling in the $96–98/MWh range through the balance of the morning. The 07:30 AEST interval carries a forecast of $106.22–106.26/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, suggesting the step-up price is expected to recur. Overnight periods through to 12:00–13:30 AEST show consistent $88.20/MWh prints across several forecast runs — the lowest achievable price in today's stack — interspersed with $96.24/MWh anchors. Flexible load operators should note the 12:30 AEST (02:30 UTC) window as the most attractive load-shifting target, with multiple predispatch runs flagging $88.20/MWh and "excellent" quality ratings.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 operations today. The most recent TAS-specific notice (144045) confirmed cancellation of a contingency reclassification on the Sheffield–George Town 220 kV lines on 5 May — that constraint set (T-GTSH\_N-2), which sits on the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector, is no longer active. Traders should note the prior Basslink-related constraint history given its role in Tasmania's ability to export to Victoria; no current inter-regional transfer limit notices are in force for TAS1. The previously declared Forecast LOR1 for 5 May (Notice 144025) was cancelled on 2 May, and reserve adequacy is not flag