Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 11 May 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $125/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,375.85 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices traced a clear diurnal arc: an evening peak band of $125–$138/MWh around 07:00–09:00 AEST, a deep overnight trough dropping as low as $14/MWh in the early hours, a mid-morning recovery into the $76–$105/MWh range through the day, and a renewed evening climb back above $100/MWh from 04:00 AEST onward. The 24-hour average across recorded intervals sits in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh, placing the current $125/MWh print materially above that mean and consistent with evening demand ramp conditions.

The current generation mix is split between gas CCGT at 282.54 MW and wind at 235.81 MW, with solar at zero (as expected post-sunset) and gas OCGT offline. Wind is contributing approximately 45% of local dispatch, with the CCGT carrying the balance. Carbon intensity sits at 0.2671 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 45.49% — both metrics have eased from the daytime lows recorded in the early hours (intensity peaked at 0.4442 tCO2/MWh around 03:30–04:00 AEST when wind output was minimal) and improved materially through the afternoon as wind picked up. The trajectory from the carbon history shows intensity falling from 0.44 tCO2/MWh at 13:30 AEST down to 0.10 tCO2/MWh at 00:00 AEST during peak solar and wind periods, before climbing back toward current levels as solar drops out.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) target converge in a $88–$122/MWh range across successive runs, with the most recent forecast (20:01 UTC) at $88.83/MWh — suggesting the market anticipates modest price softening from the current $125/MWh print as the evening peak passes. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) forecasts are considerably firmer, clustering at $116–$149/MWh across earlier runs, though the most recent data for that period is limited. Looking further into today, load window forecasts show prices easing into the $49–$80/MWh band from approximately 10:00 AEST onward, dropping to $7–$22/MWh in the pre-dawn hours (02:30–05:00 AEST) — the window where wind and overnight economics typically deflate SA prices. The 16:30–17:00 AEST shoulder period forecasts drift back toward $79–$88/MWh ahead of the next evening ramp.

On market notices, the most directly SA-relevant item is the market intervention sequence from 6 May (notices 144048–144052), in which AEMO directed Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 to synchronise for voltage control support — subsequently cancelled at 13:00 AEST that day. While no active intervention is in place today, the episode is a standing reminder of SA's voltage management sensitivity when synchronous plant numbers are low. The MSATS