Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 11 May 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $85.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,522 MW and climbing through the early-morning ramp. The 24-hour price profile shows a pronounced evening peak — prices surged from $64.83/MWh at 16:00 AEST to a session high of $117.73/MWh at 17:00 AEST before easing back through overnight and early-morning intervals into the $60–$75/MWh range. The current price represents a step up from that overnight trough as morning demand builds, consistent with the typical Queensland weekday morning ramp pattern.
The generation mix at the 06:00 AEST trading interval is heavily weighted toward black coal at 2,020 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT providing a negligible 0.19 MW. Solar output sits at zero, reflecting the pre-dawn period — today's weather outlook points to 61% average cloud cover across the day, moderating solar potential relative to clearer autumn days. Renewable penetration stands at just 4.08%, consistent with the overnight and morning period where wind and hydro carry the full non-thermal load. This figure is well below the 22–23% renewable penetration seen around 08:30–09:00 AEST last night, when overnight wind was more active. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.8441 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range and consistent with the coal-dominant morning dispatch stack.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) have converged toward $82.50/MWh in the most recent run, down from earlier forecasts in the $91–$103/MWh range that were being produced through the morning. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $78.89/MWh. This suggests the market is pricing a softer outcome than earlier predispatch rounds anticipated — likely reflecting the relatively moderate demand trajectory and no acute capacity constraint signals visible in current dispatch. Load-shifting windows from 08:30 AEST onward show prices dropping sharply into the $2–$25/MWh range through the overnight period (12:30–11:30 AEST the following day), identifying extended excellent-quality off-peak opportunities for flexible industrial and commercial loads.
The one active AEMO market notice directly relevant to Queensland operations is the 30 April general notice confirming that from 5 May 2026, the cap on local dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in Queensland has been raised from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where QLD islanding is considered credible. This is a standing operational change that grid engineers should factor into contingency planning and battery dispatch strategies. An inter-regional transfer notice remains active regarding a Directlink Leg 3 outage (constraint set N-MBTE_1, affecting the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector), which continues to constrain the NSW–QLD interconnection margin and warrants monitoring if QLD export opportunities arise later in the trading day.