Commodity Demand — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.26/MWh with demand at 1,089.6 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current demand level is well off the session peak of 1,254.7 MW reached around 17:55 AEST, and the price relationship across today's demand trajectory is clearly defined: intervals where demand pushed above 1,150 MW consistently attracted prices in the $96–$107/MWh band, while demand below that threshold has largely held the price at or near the $88.22–$88.26/MWh floor. The overnight trough — demand falling to around 958 MW between 12:00 and 12:30 AEST — saw prices anchored at $88.22/MWh without any further downward movement, suggesting that level represents a supply stack floor rather than a demand-driven equilibrium.

The most price-sensitive period of the day ran from approximately 07:00 to 09:30 AEST, when demand climbed from 1,062 MW through to the day's peak of 1,254.7 MW. Prices in this window reached $106–$109/MWh, with a single spike to $109.05/MWh at 17:00 AEST as demand crossed 1,149 MW on the morning ramp. A secondary price softening occurred mid-afternoon between 03:30 and 07:30 AEST (17:30–21:30 AEST local), when prices dropped to a $77.15–$77.18/MWh range coinciding with demand sitting in the 974–984 MW band — the lowest sustained demand of the evening period. This window lasted roughly 55 minutes before prices recovered to $88.26/MWh as evening demand began rebuilding toward 1,000 MW and above.

Forecasts for the next two trading intervals (07:00 and 07:30 AEST) point to $96.28–$96.93/MWh, consistent with demand lifting toward and potentially beyond the 1,100 MW mark as Tuesday's morning demand ramp takes hold. The pattern from today's data is unambiguous: the $96/MWh price tier activates reliably once demand approaches 1,100–1,120 MW, and the $106+ tier emerges above approximately 1,150 MW. With Hobart's temperature sitting at 10.2°C and heating demand registering at 7.8, the morning space-heating load is the primary upward demand driver to watch. No Tasmania-specific reserve or supply notices are active; the SA LOR1 flagged in overnight notices has been cancelled and carries no direct implication for TAS1 dispatch conditions today.