Carbon Forecast

SA1 is the lowest-intensity region on the NEM at 0.16 tCO2/MWh with 71.9% renewable penetration, driven by 498 MW of wind and 115 MW of gas CCGT plus 80 MW of OCGT filling the remainder. TAS1 sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — 500 MW of hydro and 50 MW of wind — and has held that reading consistently across the entire dataset. At the other end, VIC1 is the highest-intensity region at 1.13 tCO2/MWh with only 5.7% renewable penetration; 2,176 MW of brown coal dominates the mix, supplemented by 110 MW of gas OCGT and a marginal 137 MW of wind. QLD1 sits at 0.85 tCO2/MWh on 3.4% renewables, with 2,454 MW of black coal and minimal gas OCGT. NSW1 reads 0.79 tCO2/MWh with 10.1% renewables — 5,843 MW of black coal alongside 519 MW of hydro and a combined 137 MW of wind and solar.

The trajectory through today tells a clear story. SA1's lowest-intensity window occurred around 18:00–18:30 AEST, where intensity touched 0.09 tCO2/MWh at 82% renewables; it has since edged up slightly to 0.16 tCO2/MWh as wind generation holds but solar has zeroed out for the evening. NSW1's midday solar contribution pulled intensity down to a daily low of approximately 0.73 tCO2/MWh around 08:30–09:30 AEST before climbing back toward 0.79 tCO2/MWh in the post-solar hours. VIC1 showed the opposite pattern — intensity was notably lower overnight (0.55–0.59 tCO2/MWh) when wind penetration was near 50%, then climbed sharply from 07:00 AEST as morning demand ramped and wind output fell, peaking above 1.15 tCO2/MWh in the mid-afternoon. QLD1 has been essentially flat all day above 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewables locked under 4%.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the green windows today are concentrated in SA1 and TAS1 throughout the day — SA1's best window was the 14:00–18:30 AEST band when wind strength pushed renewables above 73–82% and intensity sat at 0.09–0.13 tCO2/MWh. That window is now narrowing as evening demand builds. TAS1 presents a flat, zero-intensity profile across all hours and remains the most consistent low-carbon dispatch option on the NEM. Looking ahead through this evening, SA1 intensity is likely to drift further upward as wind variability dictates, but should remain well below the mainland coal-heavy regions. NSW1 and QLD1 offer no meaningful green windows until solar re-enters the mix after sunrise tomorrow. VIC1's next low-intensity opportunity will be overnight if wind penetration recovers toward the 40–50% levels seen in the 21:00–22:30 AEST band recorded earlier today.