Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 18 September 2026
NSW spot sits at $64.31/MWh at 06:30 AEST, easing back after a volatile overnight and morning session that swung from -$6.75/MWh in the early hours to a peak of $111.98/MWh at 14:25 AEST yesterday. Demand is running at 6,797 MW, down from the evening peak near 8,660 MW. The past 24 hours have shown a classic solar-driven price pattern: negative and near-zero prices dominated the 11:00–17:00 UTC window (overnight AEST) when demand troughed below 4,100 MW, followed by a sharp ramp to $75-100/MWh territory through the morning and afternoon peak periods.
Generation mix is currently black coal-dominant at 4,216 MW, with wind contributing 1,592 MW, solar 281 MW, hydro 166 MW, gas OCGT 27 MW, and battery output minimal at 1 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 32.5%, well down from the 69-70% peaks recorded around 04:00-05:00 AEST when wind and solar combined displaced most thermal generation. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.593 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.262 tCO2/MWh — tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and grid emissions intensity typical of this region's diurnal cycle.
Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $75-90/MWh band through the day, with a step up to $86-90/MWh around midday (11:00-13:30 AEST) before easing to $76/MWh by early evening. Overnight tonight, forecasts turn sharply negative again — as low as -$32/MWh around 14:30 AEST tomorrow (04:30 UTC) — consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight pattern. Gridcast identifies five low-cost load-shifting windows tonight and tomorrow morning, the best being 14:00-15:30 AEST with average pricing near -$18/MWh, offering approximately $161 in savings per MW shifted versus peak.
No NSW-specific market notices are currently active. Relevant NEM-wide items include an ongoing SA region voltage-related AEMO direction to AGL's Torrens Island unit (effective through 17:00 AEST today) and a forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) event in SA between 11:30-14:30 AEST today, both independent of NSW dispatch but worth monitoring for inter-regional flow effects via the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors. Weather today is mild and clear — 14.2-26.8°C, near-zero cloud cover, solar potential building to 39% — supportive of a strong midday solar contribution before the evening ramp.