Load Advisor: Wednesday 16 September 2026

The overnight trough from roughly 10:00 to 16:00 AEST (00:00–06:00 UTC) is the standout NEM-wide load shifting window today, with predispatch prices sitting at or below zero across NSW, VIC, SA and QLD for extended stretches. NSW prices bottom out at -$8.01/MWh around 13:30 AEST, SA troughs near -$8.17/MWh at 10:30 AEST, and QLD holds between -$7.15 and -$6.01/MWh from roughly 09:00 through 15:00 AEST. VIC is marginally higher through the trough (flat around $6-10/MWh) but still delivers savings above $160/MWh versus this morning's peak. TAS1 is the outlier: it never goes negative and stays elevated ($32-65/MWh) through its equivalent window, though this is still a substantial discount versus its current $152.83/MWh peak.

Peak periods to avoid emerge sharply from late morning. NSW, VIC, SA and QLD forecasts all show prices climbing fast from around 17:00 AEST, with VIC and SA the most exposed — VIC predispatch reaches $169.27/MWh at 19:30 AEST and SA peaks at $170.44/MWh across 19:00-21:30 AEST, both driven by the evening ramp as solar output fades. TAS1's sharpest spike is earlier and more extreme, with a forecast $320.04/MWh spot at 11:30 AEST tied to tight local conditions — flexible loads in Tasmania should be clear of that half-hour specifically, not just the general afternoon peak. NSW and QLD peaks are comparatively contained, topping out near $129/MWh and $107/MWh respectively through late morning to early afternoon.

SA presents the strongest savings opportunity today, with the trough-to-peak spread reaching roughly $176/MWh and clear sky conditions (0% cloud cover, 35% solar potential forecast) supporting sustained negative pricing through the midday window. NSW and QLD offer solid $113-137/MWh swings with low-risk negative pricing for over six consecutive hours. VIC's trough is shallower in absolute terms but still worth capturing given the size of its afternoon peak.

Recommendation: schedule all shiftable industrial and commercial load — EV charging, batch processes, water pumping, HVAC pre-cooling — into the 10:00-16:00 AEST window today, prioritising SA and NSW where negative pricing risk is flagged low and sustained. Avoid running discretionary load in any region between 17:00 and 21:30 AEST, and in Tasmania specifically steer clear of the 11:30 AEST spike. VIC and SA sites with battery or thermal storage should target charging before 16:00 AEST to bank capacity ahead of the steep evening ramp.