Commodity Demand — NSW1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $96.99/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 8,368 MW and climbing sharply through the morning ramp. Demand has risen from an overnight low near 4,160 MW (03:00-04:00 AEST, when prices were negative at -$3 to -$7/MWh) to over 9,400 MW at the 08:30-08:55 AEST peak, where prices spiked to $118-130/MWh. The demand-price relationship is tight and non-linear today: every 1,000 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp (06:00 to 08:00 AEST) added roughly $60-80/MWh to spot price, reflecting the region moving up the supply stack as black coal (currently 5,476 MW) and gas peaking plant are dispatched to cover the gap left by overnight wind and hydro output tapering.
The forecast trajectory points to a second, sharper price response later this morning. AEMO's forecast curve shows RRP climbing from $65.93/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $121.10/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then holding in the $120-130/MWh band through to midday (peak forecast $129.65/MWh at 09:30 and 10:00 AEST). This aligns with the historical demand pattern, where NSW demand plateaued near 9,300-9,470 MW between 08:30 and 09:55 AEST yesterday before easing back through the afternoon. Expect today's demand to follow a similar shape, with the morning peak the key price risk window for traders and the trough between 03:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow the next low-price opportunity.
Afternoon and evening demand should ease from the morning peak but stay elevated, with forecast prices cooling to the $86-107/MWh range from 13:00 to 18:00 AEST as solar generation (currently only 411 MW given early-morning conditions, but rising through the day per the 21.9% average solar potential forecast for today) offsets grid demand. A secondary evening peak is likely as solar drops away — yesterday's data shows demand climbing back to 8,367 MW by 20:30 AEST with prices firming to $97-115/MWh. No NSW-specific demand-side notices are active; the flagged market interventions and minimum system load conditions all relate to SA, with no direct NSW demand constraints reported today.