Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 28 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $115.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 7,582 MW, down from the 9,477 MW peak recorded at 08:00 AEST overnight but still elevated relative to the overnight trough of 4,716 MW at 03:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship is pronounced today: as demand climbed from ~5,000 MW in the early hours to over 9,000 MW between 07:00 and 12:00 AEST, prices moved in lockstep from single digits and negative prints up to the $109-133/MWh range, confirming tight correlation between load growth and marginal price-setting in this window.
The demand trajectory through the day shows a classic morning ramp — from a low of 4,716 MW at 03:00 AEST up to a sustained plateau above 9,000 MW between 07:30 and 12:00 AEST, before easing back through the afternoon to current levels near 7,500-7,600 MW. Price behaviour mirrors this closely: the 07:00-12:30 AEST window recorded the day's highest prices, with multiple 5-minute intervals clearing above $130/MWh as demand pushed past 9,300 MW, while the current price of $115.11/MWh reflects an evening demand uptick as load recovers from the afternoon trough of 6,927 MW around 17:40 AEST.
AEMO's forecast curve points to continued price softening overnight, with several 30-minute intervals between 21:00 AEST tonight and 06:00 AEST tomorrow forecast to print negative or near-zero prices ($-7 to $2/MWh), consistent with the low-demand overnight pattern. The forecast then shows a sharp reversal from 06:30 AEST tomorrow, climbing to $84.79/MWh by 07:30 and peaking near $118/MWh around 10:30 AEST — mirroring today's demand-driven ramp pattern. No load-shedding, demand response, or reserve notices are active for NSW today; the only NSW-specific notice concerns the completed Bayswater-Wollar line outage, which has removed a prior transmission constraint and likely supports smoother price transmission during the morning peak.
Current generation mix shows black coal supplying 5,468 MW (72% of the 7,582 MW instantaneous demand), with hydro contributing 877 MW and wind at 462 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 20.26% and carbon intensity at 0.70 tCO2/MWh, both easing from the midday low of 13-17% renewable share recorded during the 15:00-19:00 AEST demand plateau, reflecting the diminished solar contribution as the evening peak approaches.