Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 18 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $10.65/MWh at 06:25 AEST, well below the volatility seen across the evening peak yesterday, when prices spiked to a high of $57.56/MWh around 07:20 AEST (17:20 AEST 17 August local peak). Overnight the market spent extended periods in negative territory, with prices troughing near -$7.94/MWh in the early hours as demand fell to a low of 4,102 MW around 13:55 AEST equivalent. Demand has since recovered to 5,536 MW as the morning ramp gets underway, tracking a typical Wednesday demand curve.
Generation mix is currently led by wind at 3,590 MW, followed by brown coal at 3,400 MW, battery output at 146 MW, and hydro at a modest 4.7 MW. Solar is at zero given the current pre-dawn/overcast conditions, with gas (OCGT and CCGT) sitting idle. This puts renewable penetration at 52.4%, consistent with the strong wind contribution overnight. Carbon intensity is 0.581 tCO2/MWh, up from an intraday low of 0.517 tCO2/MWh reached around 23:25 AEST yesterday when renewable share peaked near 57.6%, and higher than the 24-hour average as wind generation eases back from its overnight peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning: forecast RRP climbs from $10.65/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $75.31/MWh by 08:00 AEST, peaking at $89.04/MWh around 11:00 AEST as demand builds into the midday period and wind potential softens (today's outlook shows average wind potential dropping to 17.5% versus stronger overnight conditions). Prices are then forecast to ease back to the $10-13/MWh band by early afternoon and hold there into the evening, with a brief uptick to $19.18/MWh forecast for 18:00 AEST. Traders should note the 08:00-12:00 AEST window carries the highest forecast pricing risk today.
On notices, Basslink remains under a technical constraint (I-VT_000 invoked from 07:00 AEST 18 August) affecting Victoria-Tasmania transfer capacity — this remains active and relevant for cross-border flow planning. SA continues to operate under an active AEMO intervention event and directions to Torrens Island for voltage control, which has flow-on implications for Victorian interconnector loading via Heywood and Murraylink. No VIC-specific non-conformance or intervention notices are currently active, though the 13 August non-conformance flag on PLBESS1 (7 MW, since resolved) remains on record. Weather outlook shows cool, cloudy conditions persisting (13.7°C, 94% cloud cover), with wind potential moderating over the coming days — average wind potential falls to just 3% by 20 August, which will likely tighten renewable supply and support firmer pricing later in the week.