Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 17 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $35.94/MWh at 06:25 AEST, well down from yesterday evening's peak of $90.55/MWh recorded during the 18:00-19:00 AEST demand ramp. Prices have been volatile overnight, swinging from a low of -$8.50/MWh around 13:20-13:30 AEST (overnight trough with high wind output) through to this morning's $80-90/MWh band during the 16:00-19:00 AEST peak when demand climbed to 7,570 MW. Current demand reads 6,207 MW, tracking below yesterday's equivalent period.
Generation mix is currently led by brown coal at 4,265 MW, with wind contributing 2,992 MW, hydro at 5 MW, and battery output of 3 MW. Solar sits at 0 MW given the pre-dawn hour, and gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is minimal to zero. Wind is providing a strong share of output this morning, consistent with the renewable penetration reading of 41.29% and carbon intensity of 0.716 tCO2/MWh — a notable improvement from the 0.85-0.89 tCO2/MWh range seen through Sunday evening and overnight, tracking the rise in wind generation through the morning shoulder.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further easing over the next few hours, with prices tapering to $38.48/MWh by 22:00 AEST and continuing to fall into negative territory overnight — troughing around -$8.00/MWh between 02:30-05:30 AEST tomorrow (18 August) as wind generation and low demand combine. A brief bounce to $31-38/MWh is forecast for the 08:00-09:30 AEST period tomorrow before prices dip negative again through the midday and afternoon periods, with sustained negative pricing forecast from around 12:00 AEST through to at least 18:00 AEST. This aligns with the load-shifting windows flagged for tomorrow, including five low-risk periods offering $62-65/MWh savings versus peak, concentrated in the 01:00-06:00 AEST and 16:00-17:00 AEST windows.
On notices, the only VIC1-specific item of relevance is a non-conformance declaration for unit PLBESS1 (7 MW, 10:55-11:25 AEST on 13 August), now historical. No active market interventions, reliability instruments, or network constraints are currently affecting Victoria directly — recent AEMO notices concentrate on interconnector and network issues in QLD, NSW and SA. Weather today shows a cool start (7.8°C) with a mild top of 18.8°C, average solar potential of 11.1% and wind potential of 4.1%, suggesting moderate renewable output through the day before conditions turn cooler and windier into Wednesday.