Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 17 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $37.04/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking below its 24-hour average of roughly $45/MWh. Prices have swung sharply through the day — from a low of -$7.14/MWh during the 05:30 solar/wind surplus this morning to a peak of $88.46/MWh at 06:30 as demand ramped into the morning shoulder. Demand currently reads 1,428 MW, down from the evening peak near 2,110 MW recorded around 08:45. The volatility band overnight and into the morning reflects the region's high renewable share, where output swings drive rapid price transitions across five-minute intervals.
Generation mix at 20:25 AEST is wind-dominated: 1,164 MW of wind, 154 MW from batteries, 43 MW gas CCGT, and negligible gas OCGT (0.11 MW). Solar is at zero, consistent with the after-dark period. Renewable penetration sits at 96.86%, pushing carbon intensity down to 0.0154 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings of the day. Intensity peaked around 0.078 tCO2/MWh near 10:30 AEST when renewable share dipped to 85.66% during a temporary gas contribution increase, but has since recovered as wind output rebuilt through the afternoon and evening.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued softness overnight, with prices easing to $10.95/MWh by 23:00 and turning negative from roughly 01:00 through 06:00 tomorrow (18 August), bottoming near -$8.00/MWh around 03:30-04:30. This aligns with load-shifting windows flagged for that period, offering savings of approximately $63/MWh versus peak pricing for flexible load. A moderate recovery is forecast into tomorrow morning, reaching $30-36/MWh between 08:00 and 09:30, before prices are forecast to fall into negative territory again from midday through the afternoon, dropping to around -$8.00/MWh by 16:00-16:30 as solar and wind output builds.
On notices, AEMO's MTPASA update (11 August) flags a Low Reserve Condition for South Australia in July 2028 and confirms annual unserved energy risk between August 2027 and August 2028 — a longer-term reliability signal rather than an immediate operational concern. Closer to home, the reclassification of the Brinkworth-Davenport, Brinkworth-Templers West and Para-Templers West 275kV lines as a credible contingency (invoked 8 August due to severe weather) was subsequently cancelled once the weather threat passed, and Murraylink interconnector control issues from mid-August have also been resolved. No active intervention events or non-conformance declarations are currently in effect for SA1. Wind potential for today sits at a modest 9.3 (current) easing slightly to 7.4 in tomorrow's outlook, with solar potential improving to 11.8 — both consistent with the forecast price patterns above.