Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 16 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $54.70/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,328 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight prices swung deeply negative, touching -$38.32/MWh around 05:50 AEST as low demand met high brown coal baseload output, before spiking to a local peak of $90.55/MWh at 07:25 AEST as demand rebuilt through breakfast. The current price sits well below that morning peak but above the sub-$20/MWh troughs seen between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST — a typical overnight-to-morning pattern for this region.
Generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,600 MW, supplying the bulk of Victoria's output, with wind contributing 1,272 MW, hydro at 271 MW, battery storage at 233 MW, and gas OCGT at 112 MW. Solar output is at zero given the 20:30 AEST (overnight) snapshot timing and heavy cloud cover reducing daytime solar potential to just 16% today. Renewable penetration sits at 27.4%, in line with the daily range of 17–31% seen over the past 24 hours, with carbon intensity at 0.876 tCO2/MWh — mid-range for Victoria, improving from levels above 0.99 tCO2/MWh recorded near 16:30 AEST yesterday as brown coal's share dropped and wind picked up.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trend into this evening, with prices rising to $64/MWh by 21:00 AEST, peaking near $74.50/MWh by 22:00 AEST as evening demand builds, before easing back overnight. Tomorrow's morning peak is forecast substantially higher, with prices climbing to $86–88/MWh between 08:00 and 09:30 AEST on 18 August, consistent with today's pattern. Overnight troughs remain deeply discounted, with forecast prices near $10.50/MWh through the 14:00–18:00 AEST window on 17 August (which reflects the following overnight period in UTC-referenced predispatch data) — presenting low-carbon, low-cost load-shifting windows for flexible demand.
No VIC-specific market notices are currently active beyond a non-conformance declaration for the PLBESS1 battery unit (7 MW, 13 August) and unrelated interconnector and reliability notices affecting NSW, SA and QLD. No credible contingency reclassifications or intervention events are current for Victoria today. Traders should note the SA region's MT PASA-flagged low reserve conditions for mid-2028 are a longer-term planning signal rather than an immediate operational concern for VIC1.