Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 16 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $51.78/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking below the volatile band seen through Sunday evening, when prices swung from $92.40/MWh at 17:25 AEST down to negative territory (-$19.85/MWh) overnight as wind generation surged and demand collapsed to below 500 MW. Demand has since climbed back to 1438.5 MW as the Monday morning ramp gets underway. Over the past 24 hours, prices have ranged from -$19.85/MWh to $92.40/MWh, reflecting the high wind/low demand overnight dynamic typical of SA's shoulder-season profile.
The generation mix is currently wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1370.85 MW, comfortably covering total demand, alongside 74.49 MW from batteries, 42.69 MW from gas CCGT, and a negligible 0.1 MW from gas OCGT. Solar is at zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 97.12%, and carbon intensity is 0.0141 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings of the past day, down from a peak of 0.1169 tCO2/MWh recorded around 08:55 AEST yesterday when solar output was constrained by cloud cover (84% cover currently, easing demand for gas plant).
Predispatch forecasts show prices climbing sharply through the morning as demand ramps: $59.55/MWh by 07:00 AEST, rising to $74.31/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then continuing higher through the morning peak to $84–85/MWh between 18:00–20:00 AEST (10:00–10:30 local trading intervals). Prices then ease into the afternoon, falling to $36.99/MWh by 14:00 AEST equivalent and dropping to around $10/MWh overnight into Tuesday as wind generation is forecast to remain strong and demand tapers off. Traders should note the sharp forecast swing from $75.44/MWh at 11:30 AEST target time down to $10.49/MWh by 14:30 AEST — a compressed window worth watching for battery dispatch opportunities.
On notices, AEMO's MTPASA update (Notice 144788, issued 11 August) flags a Low Reserve Condition declared for South Australia in July 2028, with unserved energy forecast to exceed the Reliability Standard between August 2027 and August 2028 — a longer-term planning signal rather than an immediate operational concern. Closer to home, the Murraylink interconnector control issue (Notice 144805) has been resolved as of 15 August, restoring normal output variation controls. No active credible contingency reclassifications or intervention events are currently in force for SA, following the cancellation of the Brinkworth-Davenport/Templers West 275kV line reclassification and the SA intervention event earlier this month.