Carbon Forecast: Sunday 16 August 2026

South Australia is running at 0.0141 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 97.1%, the lowest carbon intensity in the NEM this morning, driven by 1,371 MW of wind plus 74 MW of battery discharge covering almost the entire regional load. Victoria sits at the opposite end at 0.8762 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 27.4%, as 4,601 MW of brown coal continues to underpin generation alongside 1,272 MW of wind. NSW (0.6346 tCO2/MWh, 27.7% renewable) and Queensland (0.618 tCO2/MWh, 29.4% renewable) sit mid-pack, both leaning on black coal (5,946 MW and 4,842 MW respectively) with wind contributing over 1,400 MW in each region. Tasmania is the second-cleanest region at 0.0996 tCO2/MWh with 84.7% renewable penetration, hydro-dominant at 1,036 MW.

Overnight data shows all mainland regions carried lower intensity through the 21:00–05:00 window, with NSW troughing near 0.44 tCO2/MWh and QLD near 0.44-0.45 tCO2/MWh around 01:00-04:00 AEST as demand eased and wind output remained solid. As morning ramps up and wind typically softens through the day, NSW, VIC and QLD intensity has been climbing back toward 0.60-0.68 tCO2/MWh through the middle of the day in this dataset — a pattern likely to repeat today as rooftop and grid-scale solar peaks midday before handing back to thermal generation into the evening ramp.

SA is the standout for carbon-sensitive load scheduling today, holding sub-0.02 tCO2/MWh consistently from mid-afternoon into the evening on strong wind output, with brief dips into the 0.03-0.06 range only where wind eases overnight. Tasmania's hydro base keeps it consistently under 0.15 tCO2/MWh across almost all hours, with a further step down below 0.08 tCO2/MWh typically appearing mid-afternoon. For NSW, VIC and QLD, the best windows for shifting flexible or carbon-sensitive load fall in the early hours (00:00-05:00 AEST) where wind contribution lifts renewable share into the high-40s to high-50s percentage range and intensity troughs 15-25% below the midday peak.