Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 15 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $69.35/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, down from the overnight peak of $151.84/MWh recorded around 07:50 AEST on 15 August during the evening demand ramp. Demand currently reads 5,340 MW, well below yesterday's evening peak above 6,900 MW. Prices have eased steadily through the day from a morning-block high near $107/MWh (08:00 AEST) down through the $60s by early evening, tracking the typical demand-driven curve for a cool, overcast winter Sunday — current conditions show 6.6°C with 100% cloud cover and negligible wind (1.6 km/h), which explains the near-zero solar and wind potential right now.
Generation mix at the latest interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,599 MW (86% of the 5,712 MW total), with wind contributing 909 MW, gas OCGT at 143 MW, hydro at 54 MW, and battery output minimal at 6.5 MW. Solar and gas CCGT are both at zero, consistent with the overnight/low-light period. Renewable penetration reads 16.97%, below today's daytime peak of 27% seen around 09:00 AEST when wind and solar were both contributing more strongly. Carbon intensity sits at 0.9986 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the upper end of today's 0.878–1.02 range, reflecting the current high coal share as wind output has eased overnight.
Predispatch forecasts show prices falling sharply through the early hours, dipping to near zero and slightly negative between 12:00–14:00 AEST (target times 04:00–05:30 UTC) as demand troughs — forecast lows of -$3.50/MWh around 04:30 AEST. Prices are then forecast to recover through the morning ramp, climbing to $89–98/MWh between 07:30–11:00 AEST as demand builds, before easing back to the $66–80/MWh band through the afternoon. This aligns with identified low-price windows between 01:00–06:00 AEST offering savings up to $100/MWh versus peak, useful for flexible load scheduling.
No VIC-specific active market notices affect current operations beyond the standing PLBESS1 non-conformance declaration from 13 August (7 MW, since resolved). Relevant NEM-wide items include ongoing inter-regional transfer constraints on Directlink and Murraylink (NSW/SA boundary, unrelated to VIC dispatch) and the SA region low-reserve MTPASA notice for July–August 2028, which has no bearing on today's Victorian conditions. Weekly outlook shows minimal wind potential persisting through Monday and Tuesday (avg 0.2%), with cloud cover easing later in the week — expect continued coal-weighted generation and firmer intensity readings until wind resources strengthen from 19 August onward.