Regional Outlook — SA1: Saturday 15 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $67.88/MWh at 06:25 AEST, well down from the volatile evening peak seen 24 hours ago when prices spiked to $264.08/MWh amid tight conditions. Demand currently sits at 1,289 MW. Overnight the market traded through a much calmer band, with prices easing from the low-$100s around midnight to sub-$50/MWh troughs between 10:30-11:00 AEST as wind generation firmed up. The past 24 hours have shown a clear pattern: elevated evening peak pricing giving way to a low-cost overnight/early morning window on strong wind output.
Generation mix is currently wind-dominated: wind is contributing 987 MW, comfortably the largest source, with gas CCGT at 124.82 MW, battery discharge at 84.02 MW, gas OCGT negligible at 0.11 MW, and solar at zero given it's before sunrise. Renewable penetration sits at 89.55%, with carbon intensity correspondingly low at 0.0512 tCO2/MWh — a sharp improvement from the 0.33-0.40 tCO2/MWh range seen during Friday evening's peak when gas plant ran harder to cover the demand ramp. Carbon intensity has tracked inversely with wind output all night, bottoming near 0.039 tCO2/MWh around 14:00 AEST yesterday when renewable share peaked above 92%.
Predispatch forecasts point to further softening through the morning, with prices dipping to single digits and even briefly negative ($-3.09/MWh) between 03:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow on the back of continued wind strength and low demand — consistent with the load-shifting windows flagged for 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, all assessed as low-risk with savings up to $103/MWh versus peak. Prices then rebuild through the morning ramp, forecast to reach $101.02/MWh by 08:30-09:00 AEST as demand climbs and wind potentially eases, holding in the high-$90s to $70s range through midday and afternoon before settling around $68/MWh by 18:00 AEST.
On notices, AEMO's MTPASA update (Notice 144788) flags a Low Reserve Condition for South Australia in July 2028, with unserved energy forecast to exceed the reliability standard between August 2027 and August 2028 — a longer-term planning signal rather than an immediate operational concern. Inter-regional transfer notices affecting Murraylink control (SA region) were raised and subsequently resolved on 14-15 August, with controls now available. No active AEMO intervention events or non-conformance declarations currently apply to SA1.