Carbon Forecast: Saturday 15 August 2026
South Australia carries the lowest carbon intensity on the NEM this morning at 0.0512 tCO2/MWh, with renewables at 89.55% as 987 MW of wind covers almost the entire regional load. Tasmania sits second-lowest at 0.1106 tCO2/MWh on 82.99% renewable penetration, underpinned by 983 MW of hydro. Victoria carries the highest intensity at 0.9986 tCO2/MWh with renewable share at just 16.97%, as 4599 MW of brown coal dominates the mix against 909 MW of wind. NSW (0.6857 tCO2/MWh, 21.95% renewable) and Queensland (0.6879 tCO2/MWh, 21.46% renewable) sit in the middle, both leaning on black coal near 5,000-5,100 MW alongside solid wind contributions (NSW 691 MW, Qld 1,363 MW).
The generation mix explains the spread directly: SA and Tasmania have no coal generation in today's data, so their intensity tracks wind and hydro availability almost one-for-one. NSW, Victoria and Queensland all carry baseload coal fleets (black coal in NSW/Qld, brown coal in Victoria) that keep intensity elevated regardless of renewable output, with Victoria's brown coal fleet giving it the highest floor of any region. Solar is off in SA, Victoria and near-zero in Queensland at this time of day, reflecting the early-morning/overnight window in the data — intensity in coal-heavy regions should ease somewhat as rooftop and grid solar ramp through the morning.
Looking at the trajectory through the day, SA's overnight and early-morning data show intensity fell as low as 0.0386 tCO2/MWh (14:00 UTC / 00:00 AEST window) with renewables above 92%, and the region has sustained sub-0.06 tCO2/MWh readings for an extended stretch — that pattern points to another deep green window today once wind holds and solar ramps into the middle of the day. NSW and Queensland both show their own daily lows in the 0.44-0.47 tCO2/MWh range during overnight hours, rising through the morning as demand builds and solar hasn't yet ramped, then staying elevated 0.65-0.70 tCO2/MWh through the day. Victoria's lowest readings (around 0.878 tCO2/MWh) occur near mid-morning when wind output peaks, but the region has no window today falling into genuinely low-carbon territory given the coal baseload. For carbon-sensitive load-shifting, SA remains the standout target throughout the day, with Tasmania as a stable secondary option; NSW and Queensland offer moderate improvement in overnight hours only, while Victoria's mix keeps it the highest-intensity region region-wide for the remainder of today.