Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 14 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $113.12/MWh at 06:25 AEST, easing off this morning's peak but still tracking above the overnight lows near $17-30/MWh recorded around 04:55-04:50 AEST. The past 24 hours show a classic demand-driven arc: prices bottomed around $17-30/MWh in the pre-dawn trough (04:00-05:00 AEST) when demand was below 5,650 MW, then spiked to a session high of $176.85/MWh at 08:00 AEST as demand climbed past 7,300 MW during the morning ramp. Demand has since eased back to 5,517 MW alongside the price pullback.
The generation mix at 20:30 (UTC, ~06:30 AEST) is dominated by brown coal at 4,639 MW, comfortably the largest contributor. Battery output sits at 241.82 MW, gas OCGT at 142.7 MW, wind at 101.49 MW, and hydro at 57.74 MW. Solar is at 0 MW given the pre-dawn timing, and gas CCGT is offline. Renewable penetration has fallen sharply through the day, from 34.5% overnight to just 7.74% at the current interval — consistent with wind easing and solar yet to ramp. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 1.1099 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.79 tCO2/MWh recorded overnight, reflecting the heavier reliance on brown coal as renewable output thins out.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing through the day: $103.88/MWh by 07:00 AEST, dropping to $66.75/MWh by 09:00 AEST, and falling further into negative-adjacent territory overnight, with forecasts as low as $12.50-19.18/MWh between 11:00 AEST and 14:00 AEST tomorrow morning. Prices are expected to firm again into tomorrow's morning peak, reaching $90-100/MWh by 17:30-18:00 AEST. Today's weather outlook shows modest solar potential (6.8%) and negligible wind potential (0.7%), suggesting renewable contribution will stay constrained through the day, with cool temperatures (8.2-13.6°C) keeping heating demand elevated.
On notices, AEMO flagged an active Inter-Regional Transfer limit variation from 06:10 AEST today — Murraylink control is unavailable, with constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML invoked, affecting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector equations. This may limit Victoria-SA transfer flexibility through the session. Separately, a non-conformance notice was issued for battery unit PLBESS1 in VIC1 on 13 August (7 MW over a 30-minute window), though this is now historical. No new non-conformance or intervention events are active specifically for VIC1 today. Traders should watch the Murraylink situation for any follow-on constraint impacts on interconnector-driven price volatility.