Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 14 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $162.34/MWh at 06:25 AEST, easing back from an overnight peak of $315.66/MWh recorded around 05:20 AEST. Prices have been volatile through the morning ramp, swinging between $101/MWh and $297/MWh as demand climbed from an overnight low near 970 MW to a current 1,281 MW. Over the past 24 hours SA has averaged in the $150-170/MWh band, with the evening peak period (17:00-22:00 AEST yesterday) consistently printing above $160/MWh and several intervals spiking past $200/MWh.
Generation mix at the 20:30 UTC (06:30 AEST) interval shows gas continuing to underpin supply: GAS_OCGT at 393 MW and GAS_CCGT at 284 MW combine for 677 MW, well ahead of wind at 139 MW and batteries dispatching 299 MW. Solar output is at zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 39.3%, with carbon intensity at 0.354 tCO2/MWh — both improved from the overnight trough near 10-15% renewables and 0.51 tCO2/MWh recorded around 08:00 AEST yesterday when gas plant carried the bulk of load. Renewable penetration has been oscillating between roughly 20% and 44% over the past day, tracking wind variability against a backdrop of light winds (current wind speed just 4.4 km/h, wind potential 0.1).
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price collapse through the day: forecast RRP falls to $101/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then into single digits ($9-18/MWh) between 09:00 and 13:00 AEST as demand troughs and any wind/solar contribution offsets gas. Prices are forecast to rebound into the $90-110/MWh range through the middle of the day before easing again toward $77-90/MWh by early evening. Today's weather outlook shows modest solar potential (4.8 average, cloud cover 71%) and low wind potential (2.0), suggesting renewable output will remain gas-dependent for much of the day. Identified low-load windows between 01:00 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow offer savings up to $153/MWh versus peak pricing for flexible load.
On notices, AEMO has flagged Murraylink control unavailability (constraint I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML) from 06:10 AEST today, limiting AEMO's ability to vary interconnector flow between SA and Victoria — a factor traders should watch given its bearing on SA's price volatility and import/export capacity. Separately, the August MTPASA update maintains a Low Reserve Condition declaration for South Australia in July 2028, reflecting longer-term capacity adequacy concerns rather than an immediate operational issue. No active AEMO interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently in effect for the SA region.