NEM Overview: Friday 14 August 2026

SA1 is the pricing outlier this morning, sitting at $162.34/MWh against $93.83/MWh in QLD1 — an $68/MWh spread across the two extremes as thin overnight demand (1,281 MW) leaves SA more exposed to local gas and battery costs. NSW1 ($109.96/MWh), VIC1 ($113.12/MWh), TAS1 ($102.20/MWh) and WA1 ($102.83/MWh) are all clustered in a tighter $100-$113/MWh band. Total NEM demand across the five NEM regions is running around 21,000 MW, consistent with mild winter morning conditions — temperatures range from 4.2°C in TAS1 to 11°C in QLD1, with heating demand elevated but no extreme cold snap.

Generation mix reflects overnight/early-morning conditions with solar largely offline. Coal remains the largest single source in NSW1 (5,815 MW black coal), QLD1 (5,636 MW black coal) and VIC1 (4,633 MW brown coal). Wind output is solid in QLD1 (996 MW) and NSW1 (523 MW), with hydro strong in TAS1 (1,188 MW) and NSW1 (697 MW). TAS1 carries the highest renewable share of any region at 85.6%, against SA1 at 36.97%, NSW1 at 18.02%, QLD1 at 15.15% and VIC1 at just 3.68%. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 36.9% per the latest market score, with carbon intensity scoring 54.5 — a mid-range reading consistent with coal-heavy overnight generation in the mainland regions.

Interconnector flows show NSW1 exporting 935 MW to QLD1 and VIC1 exporting 283 MW to NSW1, with Heywood (V-S-MNSP1) constrained at its 59 MW limit and Murraylink (V-SA) flowing 107 MW into SA1. Two interconnector constraints are currently binding: N-Q-MNSP1 at -27.1 MW and V-S-MNSP1 at 59 MW, both sitting at their limits — worth watching for any tightening in SA1 pricing given its reliance on imports. Note the active AEMO notice confirming Murraylink control functions have been unavailable since 0610 hrs, invoking constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML; this doesn't currently appear to be restricting flow but adds operational risk to SA1 import capability today. Outlook for the day points to milder afternoon temperatures (SA1 reaching 15.9°C, NSW1 16.4°C) with moderate solar potential improving into midday, which should ease overnight price pressure in SA1 as rooftop and utility solar ramps up.