Carbon Forecast: Friday 14 August 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM spans a wide range this morning, from TAS1 at 0.092 tCO2/MWh (85.8% renewables) to VIC1 at 1.11 tCO2/MWh (7.7% renewables) — a twelve-fold spread that reflects each region's generation mix rather than demand conditions alone. SA1 sits at 0.354 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 39.3%, QLD1 at 0.699 tCO2/MWh with 20.1% renewable share, and NSW1 at 0.711 tCO2/MWh with 19.1% renewable share.

TAS1's low intensity is underpinned by hydro generation of 1,211 MW against just 207 MW of gas OCGT, a mix that has kept renewable penetration above 85% for most of the past 24 hours. VIC1's elevated reading is driven by brown coal output of 4,639 MW, with wind contributing only 101 MW and solar at zero given the early evening timing of this data — intensity has climbed steadily from around 0.79 tCO2/MWh yesterday evening to over 1.15 tCO2/MWh through the VIC1 evening peak as solar dropped away and coal held steady. NSW1 and QLD1 both show black coal as the dominant source (5,949 MW and 5,575 MW respectively), with wind providing meaningful support in both regions (495 MW in NSW1, 1,118 MW in QLD1). SA1's lower intensity relative to NSW1 and QLD1 comes from a mix leaning on gas CCGT/OCGT (677 MW combined) plus wind (139 MW) and battery discharge (299 MW), with no coal in the regional mix at all.

Through the rest of today, expect the familiar solar-driven trough to open from roughly 10:00 AEST and deepen into early afternoon, when NSW1 and SA1 typically see renewable penetration climb into the high-30s to 40%+ range and intensity fall correspondingly — NSW1 dropped to 0.543 tCO2/MWh near 37.5% renewables around midday in the prior cycle, and SA1 touched 0.325 tCO2/MWh at 44.4% renewables in the same window. QLD1 shows a similar but more pronounced overnight-to-morning low, with intensity bottoming near 0.453–0.465 tCO2/MWh (46–48% renewables) in the pre-dawn hours before climbing sharply after 07:00 as solar ramps lag rising demand. VIC1's outlook is comparatively poor for carbon-sensitive scheduling today — intensity has trended upward through the past 24 hours with no strong midday trough evident, so VIC1 loads seeking a green window should target the early morning hours before 06:00 AEST rather than midday. For NEM-wide carbon-sensitive load shifting, the best window sits between roughly 11:00 and 15:00 AEST, coinciding with peak rooftop and utility solar output in NSW1, SA1 and QLD1, while TAS1 remains consistently low-carbon across all hours given its hydro base.