Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 13 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $92.02/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,185 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. Prices have been volatile overnight, spiking to $148.75/MWh at 15:35 UTC (01:35 AEST) and $139.00/MWh twice more before settling into a $80-90/MWh band through the evening. The 24-hour range spans roughly $31.51/MWh to $148.75/MWh, with the current reading tracking near the lower-middle of that range as demand builds toward the 7,700 MW peak seen yesterday morning.
Generation mix at the 20:30 UTC (06:30 AEST) interval shows brown coal dominating at 4,361.88 MW, followed by wind at 1,381.04 MW, battery storage at 315.02 MW, gas OCGT at 109.52 MW, and hydro at 57.69 MW. Solar is at 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and today's overcast outlook (74% average cloud cover forecast). Total generation is approximately 6,225 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 28.17%, recovering from an overnight low of 22.99% around 15:30 UTC (01:30 AEST) as wind output has firmed. Carbon intensity reads 0.8663 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 0.9227 tCO2/MWh at 18:00 UTC (04:00 AEST) but still elevated versus the 0.703 tCO2/MWh recorded early yesterday evening when renewable share was above 40%.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning and into midday. Prices are forecast to ease to $45-60/MWh through the next few hours before dropping to an overnight low near $13-14/MWh between 01:30 and 03:30 AEST tomorrow — a strong load-shifting window flagged in today's low-price opportunities. However, from 06:30 AEST the forecast trajectory turns sharply upward, with prices climbing to $128.41/MWh, then surging past $200/MWh by 09:00 AEST and peaking at $303.34/MWh around 12:30 AEST. This coincides with today's weak solar potential (avg 3.3) and light wind (avg 0.5) forecast for Victoria, tightening supply margins through the midday block before prices ease back to the $90-115/MWh range by late afternoon.
On notices, AEMO declared battery unit PLBESS1 non-conforming for a 7 MW discrepancy between 10:55-11:25 AEST yesterday, now resolved. No active market interventions or reliability instruments apply to VIC1 currently; the standing reserve notice concerns South Australia's 2027-28 outlook, not Victoria. Traders should note the NSW-QLD interconnector constraint history this month, though no VIC1-specific transfer limitations are currently in force. Given the forecast midday price spike against low renewable output, dispatchable capacity availability across brown coal and gas peaking plant will be the key variable to watch into the 09:00-13:00 AEST window.