Regional Outlook — SA1: Thursday 13 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $208.87/MWh as at 06:35 AEST, well above the trailing 24-hour average of roughly $115/MWh, with the interval briefly spiking to $255/MWh at 06:05-06:10. Demand is running at 1,424 MW, off the evening peak near 2,027 MW recorded around 18:50 AEST yesterday. Prices have been grinding higher through the evening block, climbing from the $101-140/MWh range mid-afternoon into the $170-255/MWh band from 05:30 AEST onward, consistent with the low-wind conditions currently on the ground — wind speed is just 1.4 km/h and wind potential is negligible.
Generation mix at the 20:30 AEST interval shows gas-fired plant dominating: GAS_OCGT at 444 MW and GAS_CCGT at 346 MW combine for 790 MW, well over half of local supply. Wind is contributing only 110 MW and solar has dropped to zero with the sun down, while batteries are discharging 219 MW to help cover the evening ramp. Renewable penetration sits at 29.3%, down sharply from the 60-70% band seen overnight two days ago when wind was stronger. Carbon intensity has risen in step, now at 0.4098 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.1535 tCO2/MWh at 05:00 AEST yesterday — tracking the swing from wind-heavy to gas-heavy generation as the region's low-wind, high-cloud conditions persist (82% cloud cover, solar potential currently zero).
Pre-dispatch forecasts point to further upside overnight and into tomorrow. SA prices are forecast to reach $300/MWh caps across the 22:00-23:00 AEST window tonight, easing to $170-255/MWh through the early morning, before a second, sharper spike is forecast tomorrow midday — $318.80/MWh at 21:00 UTC (07:00 AEST) and a peak forecast of $374.65/MWh around 22:30 UTC (12:30 AEST Friday). Prices are expected to settle back to the $130/MWh cap rate from mid-afternoon onward. Daily weather outlook shows wind potential remaining weak (0.5-1.5) through Saturday, keeping gas and battery dispatch as the likely price-setters into the weekend.
On notices, AEMO's MT PASA update (issued 11 August) flags a Low Reserve Condition for SA in July 2028 due to forecast unserved energy exceeding the reliability standard — a longer-term adequacy signal rather than an immediate operational issue. Two related SA market intervention events and a non-credible contingency reclassification for the Brinkworth-Davenport/Templers West 275kV lines (triggered by severe weather) were both cancelled by 10 August and are no longer active constraints. No new SA-specific notices are affecting today's operation; traders should note the elevated non-conformance and intervention history this week points to a tightening supply-demand balance during low-wind periods.