NEM Overview: Thursday 13 August 2026

SA1 is the standout this morning, with spot prices at $208.87/MWh against $91-95/MWh across NSW, VIC and QLD — better than double the mainland norm. TAS1 sits lowest at $83.56/MWh. WA1 is reporting $102.96/MWh on its separate market. The SA1 premium tracks with near-zero wind generation (109.51 MW) and zero solar output in the region, leaving gas (OCGT 444.35 MW, CCGT 346.2 MW) to cover the bulk of the region's modest 1,455 MW demand, with battery output at 218.63 MW filling the gap. Cloud cover sits at 82% over SA with wind speed at just 1.4 km/h, explaining the renewable shortfall.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 39.2% on the current scoring snapshot, though this masks wide regional variance: TAS1 is running at 92.16% renewable with hydro (970.46 MW) and wind (486.69 MW) dominant and carbon intensity at just 0.051 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest region on the grid this morning. NSW1 (22.53% renewable) and QLD1 (19.62% renewable) sit well below the NEM average, with black coal supplying 6,831.75 MW in NSW1 and 5,678.39 MW in QLD1. VIC1 renewable penetration is 28.17%, with brown coal at 4,361.88 MW and wind contributing 1,381.04 MW. Battery output is notable across NSW1 (840.97 MW) and QLD1 (476.69 MW), both playing a meaningful role in meeting morning demand.

Grid stress reads 64.1 on the composite score, consistent with the SA1 price spike and tight regional wind conditions. Two active interconnector flows are binding: V-SA (176.45 MW, at its 176.44 MW export limit) and V-S-MNSP1 (166 MW, also at limit), indicating Victoria is exporting to Tasmania and South Australia at full capacity via Basslink and Heywood — a factor likely contributing to SA1's price separation given constrained import capacity. NSW1-QLD1 flow sits at -297.53 MW (NSW importing from QLD) with headroom remaining.

Two non-conformance notices remain on record from Thursday: PLBESS1 in VIC1 (7 MW, resolved by 11:25) and WOOLGSF1 in QLD1 (143 MW, resolved by 10:50) — both closed out, no ongoing impact expected today. The standing MTPASA reserve notice flags a potential low reserve condition for SA in July 2028, a longer-term reliability watch item rather than a today concern. No active AEMO interventions or directions are in force this morning following the SA event cancellation from 10 August. Forecast conditions across the mainland show light wind and limited solar this morning, with QLD1 and NSW1 both tipped for improving solar potential into early afternoon (QLD1 29.4%, NSW1 27.1% average), which should ease price pressure through the midday period.