Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 12 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $39.86/MWh at 20:25 AEST, well down from the volatile morning peak that saw prices spike above $170/MWh in predispatch forecasts for tomorrow's 08:30-11:00 window. Today's 24-hour range has been wide — from a low of -$6.51/MWh overnight (04:45) during minimum demand of ~5,100 MW, up to $101.63/MWh during the 08:40 morning ramp when demand climbed past 7,800 MW. Current demand of 6,240 MW sits mid-range for the day as the evening ramp builds.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,307 MW (61% of the 6,946 MW total output shown), with wind contributing 2,472 MW (36%), gas OCGT at 104 MW, hydro at 49 MW, and battery discharge at just 14 MW. Solar is at zero given the 20:30 timestamp, well after sunset. This mix reflects the current renewable penetration of 36.5% and carbon intensity of 0.7662 tCO2/MWh — both have deteriorated through the day, with renewable penetration peaking near 56% around 02:00-02:30 AEST when wind output was strongest and demand was at its trough, before declining steadily as coal generation firmed to cover the evening demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation tomorrow morning: prices lift from $84/MWh at 07:00 to a forecast peak of $170-177/MWh across the 08:30-11:00 window, before easing back through the afternoon to $71-75/MWh by mid-afternoon and settling around $38-51/MWh into tomorrow evening. This pattern is consistent with tight morning supply-demand balance as coal and gas cover the ramp before wind and limited winter solar contribute meaningfully. Cold conditions persist — current temperature is 10.2°C with heating demand index at 7.8 and solar potential near zero — reinforcing thermal generation's role tomorrow morning. Load-shifting windows identified for tomorrow are concentrated overnight and pre-dawn (00:00-01:00 AEST at $10.58/MWh average, and 01:30-02:30 at $15.86/MWh), offering the best economics for flexible load ahead of the morning price spike.
No VIC-specific market notices are currently active. Recent NEM notices relate to SA reserve conditions (MTPASA flagging potential unserved energy risk in SA for 2027-28) and NSW network outages on the Liddell-Tomago and Bayswater-Sydney West lines, both now resolved. No directions, interventions, or non-conformance declarations are affecting Victoria today.