Carbon Forecast: Wednesday 12 August 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM at 6:30am AEST spans a wide range this morning, from 0.059 tCO2/MWh in Tasmania to 0.766 tCO2/MWh in Victoria — a more than 13-fold spread reflecting each region's generation mix. Tasmania sits lowest on 90.98% renewable penetration, running almost entirely on hydro (766 MW) with wind contributing 479 MW. South Australia follows closely at 0.124 tCO2/MWh with 77.79% renewables, though this is up from sub-0.01 tCO2/MWh readings overnight as wind generation eases and gas (OCGT and CCGT combined near 227 MW) fills the gap. NSW sits mid-range at 0.625 tCO2/MWh with 28.89% renewables, while Victoria and Queensland are highest at 0.766 tCO2/MWh (36.5% renewable) and 0.689 tCO2/MWh (21.33% renewable) respectively.

The mix driving this split is clear in the data: Victoria's intensity is elevated by 4,307 MW of brown coal against 2,472 MW of wind, while Queensland's black coal fleet (5,703 MW) dominates over a comparatively modest 829 MW of wind and negligible solar output at this hour. NSW's 5,915 MW of black coal is partially offset by strong wind (1,014 MW) and battery discharge (541 MW). SA's brief renewable dip reflects the overnight wind fleet backing off ahead of the solar ramp, with gas peaking plant stepping in.

Looking at the trajectory through today, expect NSW, VIC and QLD intensity to climb further through the morning peak as demand rises and rooftop/utility solar hasn't yet reached full output — historical patterns in this dataset show NSW and VIC readings pushing toward 0.63-0.78 tCO2/MWh through midday before solar penetration lowers intensity into the early afternoon. The lowest-intensity window for carbon-sensitive loads today is likely to fall between roughly 11:00am and 3:00pm AEST as solar generation peaks across NSW, VIC and SA, followed by a secondary trough overnight from around midnight to 4:00am AEST when wind output typically strengthens and demand eases, as seen in yesterday's overnight data (NSW down to 0.41 tCO2/MWh, SA under 0.02 tCO2/MWh).

SA and TAS remain the standout low-carbon regions all day given their wind/hydro-heavy stacks, and both are worth prioritising for any interruptible or shiftable load. VIC and QLD carry the highest intensity through the evening peak (approximately 5:00-8:00pm AEST) as solar drops away and coal generation holds steady — carbon-sensitive operations in those regions should aim to shift consumption away from this window where operationally feasible.