Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 11 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $9.59/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, well below the region's 24-hour trading range that peaked near $87/MWh yesterday evening and dipped as low as -$7.12/MWh overnight. Demand currently reads 1,535 MW. Prices have been suppressed for most of the past 12 hours, with numerous intervals printing at or near the market floor as strong wind output continues to outpace overnight and early-morning demand — a pattern consistent with SA's typical low-price overnight profile.
Wind is dominating the generation mix, contributing 1,847 MW against total generation of roughly 1,897 MW — effectively carrying the region's supply this morning. Gas (CCGT) is providing a modest 43 MW, gas OCGT is negligible at 0.11 MW, batteries are contributing 6.6 MW, and solar sits at zero ahead of sunrise. Renewable penetration is running at 97.7%, and carbon intensity is correspondingly low at 0.0111 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest readings observed in the past 24 hours, reflecting the wind-heavy supply stack.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp reversal as the day progresses. Prices are expected to stay low through the early morning (forecasts near $9/MWh at 10:30, dipping negative between 11:30 and 15:30 AEST) before climbing steeply into the evening peak: $57.95/MWh by 17:00, $87.22/MWh by 18:00, and peaking near $103.74/MWh around 20:30 AEST as wind potential eases (daily outlook shows average wind potential falling to 8.3% today) and evening demand ramps up. Traders should note the multiple negative-price windows flagged in the load-shifting forecasts between 00:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow, offering favourable conditions for flexible load or battery charging.
On notices, AEMO's MT PASA update (issued 11 August) flags forecast unserved energy exceeding the Reliability Standard for SA between August 2027-2028, with Low Reserve Conditions declared for July 2028 — a medium-term reliability signal rather than an immediate operational concern. Separately, the non-credible contingency reclassification for the Brinkworth-Davenport, Brinkworth-Templers West and Para-Templers West 275kV lines (weather-related) was cancelled on 10 August, and the SA intervention event from 8 August has been formally cancelled as of 10 August 04:00 AEST. No active directions or interventions are currently in place for the region.