NEM Overview: Tuesday 11 August 2026

Regional prices are sharply diverged this morning, with QLD at $190.99/MWh and NSW at $130.54/MWh, while VIC ($10.65), SA ($9.59) and TAS ($11.86) sit near the floor. WA is trading separately at $136.82/MWh. That NSW-QLD premium over the southern states reflects a roughly $120-180/MWh spread across the interconnected regions, driven by wind output above 3,500 MW in VIC and 1,750 MW in SA keeping the south well-supplied, while QLD's generation mix leans heavily on black coal (5,840 MW) with only 165 MW of wind and negligible solar overnight. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at 832 MW flowing north, and the T-V-MNSP1 (Tasmania-Victoria) link is also binding, exporting 386 MW from VIC into TAS — both indicating the interconnectors are working near their limits to move cheap southern generation towards higher-priced regions.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 48.9%, but with wide regional variance: SA is running at 97.69% renewable with a carbon intensity of just 0.0113 tCO2/MWh, TAS at 83.71%, VIC at 54.52%, NSW at 24.43%, and QLD trailing at 6.37% with intensity of 0.8197 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress is elevated at 68.6, consistent with the wide price spreads and constrained flows, while price stability is weak at 18.9 given the four-fold-plus gap between QLD and the southern regions. Solar contribution is minimal across all regions at this hour, with cloud cover heavy in VIC (90%) and TAS (96%); NSW and QLD have clearer skies (16% and 0% cloud respectively) supporting stronger solar ramp-up as the day progresses, with QLD's outlook showing solar potential building toward 15-22% over the next few days.

Traders should note an active MTPASA Reserve Notice flagging forecast unserved energy risk for SA between August 2027-2028, with Low Reserve Conditions specifically declared for July 2028 — a medium-term reliability signal rather than an immediate operational issue. On the network side, the Liddell-Tomago 330kV line in NSW returned to service yesterday afternoon, removing its associated constraint set, while the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line remains on unplanned outage with constraint set N-BWSW_32 still invoked, continuing to affect NSW1-QLD1 and VIC1-NSW1 interconnector equations. No active AEMO interventions are in place currently, though SA saw a direction and intervention event cancelled on 10 August following prior voltage-related concerns — worth watching given the region's high wind penetration and thin gas generation (just 42 MW CCGT online).