Carbon Forecast: Tuesday 11 August 2026

South Australia is running at just 0.011 tCO2/MWh this morning, with renewables at 97.7% — wind alone is contributing 1,847 MW against a token 0.11 MW of gas OCGT and 42.7 MW of gas CCGT. Tasmania sits close behind at 0.090 tCO2/MWh with 86.2% renewable penetration, hydro (396 MW) and wind (381 MW) covering nearly all local demand with only 124 MW of gas OCGT in the mix. At the other end, Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.783 tCO2/MWh with renewables down to 10.5% — black coal (5,917 MW) dominates generation while wind (134 MW) and hydro (247 MW) provide limited offset. NSW (0.653 tCO2/MWh, 25.7% renewable) and Victoria (0.601 tCO2/MWh, 50.7% renewable) sit in between, with NSW's 6,291 MW of black coal contrasting against Victoria's stronger wind output (3,322 MW) alongside 3,440 MW of brown coal.

The overnight-to-morning pattern across the eastern regions is consistent with typical trajectories: NSW, VIC and QLD all posted their lowest intensity readings in the early hours between 02:00-05:00 AEST (NSW touched 0.357 tCO2/MWh, VIC 0.676, QLD 0.443) as wind generation peaked against lower demand, before climbing through the morning as demand ramped and solar hadn't yet built. QLD's trajectory is the steepest, rising from 10.5% renewable currently toward intensities near 0.85 tCO2/MWh by early afternoon as coal dispatch increases and minimal rooftop/utility solar offsets it — QLD's renewable share has been tracking below 5% during midday hours recently, a pattern likely to repeat today. NSW and VIC show a partial recovery in the afternoon (NSW renewable share lifted to ~26% and VIC to ~58% in prior afternoon periods) as wind picks back up, before tightening again into the evening peak around 18:00-20:00 AEST.

For carbon-sensitive load-shifting today, SA and TAS remain structurally low right through the day and require no timing consideration. In the mainland NEM regions, the best windows sit in the early morning (00:00-05:00 AEST) when wind is strongest and demand is lowest — NSW and VIC intensities nearly halved versus current levels in that window overnight. A secondary, shallower window may open in VIC during mid-afternoon if wind persists, but QLD is unlikely to see a meaningful green window today given the low wind and near-zero solar contribution currently recorded. Traders and flexible-load operators should treat 12:00-19:00 AEST as the highest-intensity period nationally, driven by coal-heavy dispatch in QLD and NSW combined with subdued renewable output.