Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 10 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $87.72/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of an overnight range that swung from a brief negative print of -$6.30/MWh around 15:15 AEST yesterday to a peak of $132.36/MWh at 16:40 AEST. Demand has climbed to 6,430 MW and continues rising into the morning ramp, consistent with the overnight trough near 5,000-5,200 MW during yesterday's low-demand afternoon window. The 24-hour trend shows a classic morning price build as demand recovers from overnight lows in the $5-50/MWh band.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by brown coal at 4,332 MW, with wind contributing 1,328 MW, battery output at 224 MW, gas OCGT at 139 MW, and hydro at 35 MW; solar sits at zero given the pre-dawn timing. This mix puts renewable penetration at 26.2%, down from the 40-50% range seen overnight when wind generation and low demand combined to lift renewables' share. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.887 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.564 tCO2/MWh at 05:25 AEST, reflecting coal's increasing share of the mix as wind output and renewable contribution ease off relative to demand.
AEMO predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $80-95/MWh band through to 08:30 AEST before easing toward $74-87/MWh into the evening peak, then falling sharply overnight — forecast RRP drops to $12.81/MWh by 11:00 AEST tomorrow and into negative territory ($-0.05/MWh) between 13:00 and 18:00 AEST as demand troughs and renewable supply (wind averaging 4.6% potential, per today's weather outlook) outpaces load. Traders should note the identified low-price windows for load-shifting: five separate one-hour blocks between 01:00 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow offer average prices from -$0.02/MWh to $11.66/MWh, each flagged as low-risk with savings of $83-95/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, the Liddell-Tomago 82 330kV line in NSW returned to service at 14:10 AEST yesterday, revoking the N-LDTM_82 constraint set — a positive for interconnector flow capacity relevant to Victoria-NSW trade. An unplanned outage on the Bayswater-Sydney West No.32 330kV line remains active, having invoked constraint set N-BWSW_32, which includes the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector on the constraint equation's left-hand side; this may continue to affect cross-border transfer capacity today. No VIC-specific market interventions or non-conformance declarations are currently active.