Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 10 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $85.75/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from -$101.02/MWh (03:30) to a peak of $107.78/MWh (18:20 on the 10th). Demand currently reads 1487.5 MW. The 24-hour pattern shows the now-familiar SA signature: deeply negative prices through the 04:00-06:00 window on high wind output, followed by a steep ramp into the evening peak as wind eased and demand climbed toward 2100 MW. Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory through the morning — $87.05/MWh by 08:00, peaking near $97.68/MWh at 08:30, before easing to $71.38/MWh by 09:30 and sliding toward negative territory again ($-6/MWh) around 11:30 as wind generation re-asserts itself.
Generation mix at the last interval is wind-dominated: 1244.87 MW of wind, 104.08 MW from batteries, 64 MW from gas CCGT, and negligible OCGT (0.11 MW) and solar (zero, reflecting the pre-dawn interval). This puts renewable penetration at 95.46% and carbon intensity at just 0.0222 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest point of the past 24 hours. Intensity has ranged widely across the day, dipping to 0.0106 tCO2/MWh overnight during peak wind output and rising to 0.2094 tCO2/MWh around 10:30 AEST on the 10th when gas and battery output filled a solar/wind lull, so expect similar midday variability today as rooftop solar ramps up.
On notices, the SA-specific items are largely stood down: AEMO's market intervention event from 8 August was cancelled effective 04:00 on 10 August, and the reclassified credible contingency covering the Brinkworth-Davenport, Brinkworth-Templers West and Para-Templers West 275kV lines (invoked due to severe weather) was also cancelled as the weather warning lifted. No active SA-region directions or foreseeable intervention notices remain in effect. Traders should note the load-shifting window analysis flags strong negative-price opportunities between 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow, with the 05:30-06:30 slot offering the best economics (avg -$2.67/MWh, saving over $100/MWh versus peak), consistent with forecast wind strength and today's cool, partly cloudy outlook (max 14.4°C, average wind potential 11.2%).