NEM Overview: Monday 10 August 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a tight $81-93/MWh band across the eastern regions this morning, with WA1 the outlier at $113.92/MWh. NSW1 leads the eastern states at $92.80/MWh on demand of 8,994 MW, followed by QLD1 ($87.73/MWh, 7,083 MW) and VIC1 ($87.72/MWh, 6,430 MW). SA1 and TAS1 are the softest at $85.75/MWh and $81.16/MWh respectively, with TAS1 demand a modest 1,252 MW. The narrow $12/MWh spread across NSW1-TAS1 points to a well-balanced eastern market this morning, with no single region under unusual stress.

Generation mix reflects the winter pattern: black coal remains the largest source in NSW1 (5,023 MW) and QLD1 (5,568 MW), while brown coal dominates VIC1 (4,304 MW). SA1 stands out with wind at 1,191 MW against negligible gas (62 MW), pushing SA1's renewable penetration to 95.1% and carbon intensity down to 0.024 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest region on the grid right now. TAS1 follows at 89.9% renewable penetration, running almost entirely on hydro (850 MW) and wind (263 MW). NSW1 sits at 34.5% renewable penetration, VIC1 at 25.8%, and QLD1 the lowest at 15.1%, consistent with its solar output sitting near zero overnight and limited wind (905 MW) offsetting heavy coal generation. NEM-wide renewable penetration is tracking at 44.4%, with the platform's grid stress score elevated at 81.9, reflecting tight but manageable conditions rather than acute stress.

Interconnector flows are unremarkable: NSW1 is importing from VIC1 (240 MW) and exporting to QLD1 (435 MW net QLD1-NSW1 flow), while Tasmania is exporting solidly to Victoria via Basslink (277 MW), none of which are binding. Today's outlook favours light wind across most regions — NSW1 wind potential drops to 6.2% and SA1 to 11.2% on average, with solar potential also modest (NSW1 25.8%, QLD1 31.6%) under mostly clear skies. Traders should note two recent network normalisations: the Liddell-Tomago 330kV line returned to service yesterday afternoon, and SA1's weather-related contingency reclassification on the Brinkworth-Davenport lines has been cancelled, removing two sources of recent constraint risk. No active AEMO interventions or directions are in place in any region this morning.