Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 9 August 2026
The Victorian spot price sits at $64.98/MWh at 06:25 AEST, easing back from a volatile overnight and morning session that saw prices spike as high as $126.99/MWh around 21:40 AEST last night amid a demand ramp to over 7,650 MW. Demand currently sits at 6,055 MW, well down from this morning's peak but tracking above the negative-to-low pricing seen in Sunday's overnight trough, when prices briefly went negative (-$0.10/MWh) on low demand and high renewable output. The 24-hour trend shows a classic evening/morning double-peak shape, with today's daytime prices settling into the high $60s to $90s/MWh range through midday and early afternoon before easing toward the current level.
Generation mix at the latest interval (19:55 UTC / 05:55 AEST equivalent) shows brown coal dominating supply at 4,169 MW, with wind contributing 1,971 MW, gas OCGT at 143 MW, and hydro at 36 MW. Solar and battery are both at zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and 100% cloud cover currently reported. This mix puts renewable penetration at 31.75%, a meaningful improvement from the sub-15% troughs seen around midday and early afternoon yesterday when brown coal ran near-flat output and wind generation dropped off. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.8197 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 1.098 tCO2/MWh in the early afternoon but still elevated relative to the 0.56-0.65 tCO2/MWh range seen overnight when wind output was stronger.
AEMO predispatch forecasts show prices climbing sharply through the morning peak, with forecast RRP reaching $92.84/MWh by 08:00 AEST and pushing higher into the $106-113/MWh band between 09:00 and 10:30 AEST — the sharpest run-up of the day. Prices are then forecast to ease through midday and afternoon, settling into the $59-69/MWh range by mid-afternoon and evening. Overnight forecasts show a return to very low pricing, with several hours at $10-15/MWh between 01:00 and 05:00 AEST tomorrow, consistent with the low-demand, low-carbon overnight load windows already flagged for load-shifting opportunities.
On notices, an unplanned outage of the Bayswater–Sydney West No.32 330kV line in NSW at 05:31 AEST has triggered constraint set N-BWSW_32, affecting the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector alongside NSW1-QLD1 flows — this is worth monitoring for any knock-on impact to Victorian import/export capacity today. Separately, AEMO's SA intervention event and associated directions from 8 August have now been cancelled as of 04:00 AEST today, and the SA severe weather contingency reclassification for several 275kV lines has also been reversed. No active market notices are specific to Victoria beyond the interconnector constraint.