NEM Overview: Sunday 9 August 2026

South Australia is printing negative prices at -$6/MWh while WA sits at $100.52/MWh — a spread of over $106/MWh across the NEM this morning. The rest of the mainland is clustered in a moderate band: NSW at $73.20/MWh, QLD at $70.07/MWh, VIC at $64.98/MWh and TAS at $63.24/MWh. SA's negative print reflects near-total wind coverage (2,082 MW of wind against just 1,501 MW of demand), with the region exporting into Victoria via a fully-utilised V-SA interconnector (-500 MW, binding) and V-S-MNSP1 also binding at -84 MW. Total demand across the coupled regions is running around 24,072 MW, with NSW the largest load centre at 8,774 MW.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 43.8% on our composite score, but the regional spread is stark. SA is at 96.2% renewable with a carbon intensity of just 0.019 tCO2/MWh, and Tasmania is close behind at 89.1% (hydro-dominated, 1,004 MW). NSW and VIC are running in the low-30% renewable range (31.2% and 31.8% respectively), with VIC's carbon intensity the highest of the mainland regions at 0.820 tCO2/MWh on 4,169 MW of brown coal generation. QLD is lowest for renewables at 19.0%, with black coal covering 5,188 MW of a mixed generation stack that also includes 1,265 MW of wind. NSW is running heavy black coal too, at 5,165 MW, alongside 1,922 MW of wind.

Grid stress is elevated at 65.3 on our internal index, consistent with active network conditions this morning. An unplanned outage of the Bayswater–Sydney West No.32 330kV line at 0531 hrs has triggered constraint set N-BWSW_32, affecting NSW1-QLD1 and VIC1-NSW1 interconnector limits — worth watching given VIC1-NSW1 flow is already substantial at 614 MW. SA's severe weather-related contingency reclassification (Brinkworth-Davenport and related 275kV lines) has been cancelled as of 0530 hrs, and the AEMO intervention event in SA from 8 August has also been cancelled effective 0400 hrs today, returning that region to normal market operation.

Today's weather outlook supports continued strong wind generation in the south: SA wind potential is elevated (35% current, easing toward mid-teens tomorrow) and NSW wind potential rises to 28.4% average today. Solar potential is subdued NEM-wide this morning under heavy cloud cover (100% in NSW and VIC), limiting midday solar contribution and keeping black/brown coal and wind as the dominant supply sources through the morning peak. WA's elevated price reflects its isolated grid and separate market dynamics, unconnected to the mainland NEM interconnector flows.