Load Advisor: Saturday 8 August 2026

Overnight and early-morning prices across the NEM sit at or below zero, giving flexible load the deepest shifting window of the day. SA1, VIC1, TAS1 and QLD1 are all forecasting negative prices between 00:00 and 06:00 AEST, with QLD1 troughing near -$4/MWh around 15:00 UTC (05:00 AEST) — a saving of roughly $88/MWh versus its daytime peak. SA1 holds between -$6 and -$1/MWh from midnight through to 04:00 AEST, and again briefly turns negative around 17:30-18:30 AEST (-$1.05/MWh) as afternoon wind and low demand push prices down a second time. NSW1 is the outlier, holding in the $57-89/MWh band overnight into the morning and only easing to the low $40s/MWh from 15:00 AEST onward.

Peak periods to avoid today are concentrated in the morning demand ramp. NSW1 forecasts a spike to $88.89/MWh between 08:00 and 09:30 AEST, and QLD1 climbs to $80-84/MWh across roughly the same window (08:00-10:00 AEST) as heating demand and low solar potential (cloud cover 69-98% across NSW, QLD, VIC, SA1 today) limit renewable output. VIC1 and TAS1 also see a secondary price bump around midday (VIC1 to $62.77/MWh at 12:00 AEST, TAS1 to $59.55/MWh) before easing into the afternoon. Flexible load scheduled into these morning and midday peaks will pay 2-4 times the overnight rate.

The strongest region-specific opportunity is QLD1 overnight, where the 04:00-06:00 AEST window offers $84-88/MWh in savings versus its own peak — the largest spread of any region today. SA1 and VIC1 both offer sustained low-price windows from midnight to 04:00 AEST with prices at or below zero, though several of these carry a "high risk" flag on volatility, so shorter, well-monitored dispatch is preferable to committing large blocks. NSW1's best opportunity is later in the day, from 14:00-18:30 AEST, when prices ease to $43-51/MWh as the afternoon wind and easing demand bring relief, though it never reaches the negative territory seen elsewhere.

For flexible load scheduling today: prioritise the 00:00-06:00 AEST window for SA1, VIC1, TAS1 and QLD1 assets, targeting QLD1's 04:00-06:00 AEST trough for maximum $/MWh savings. For NSW1-connected load, shift to the 14:00-18:30 AEST window rather than overnight, avoiding the 08:00-09:30 AEST peak entirely. Across all regions, avoid dispatching flexible load between 08:00 and 10:00 AEST, where NSW1 and QLD1 prices concurrently exceed $80/MWh.