Load Advisor: Thursday 6 August 2026
NEM-wide prices currently sit well above overnight lows, with NSW at $151/MWh, WA at $149/MWh, QLD at $131/MWh, VIC at $128/MWh, SA at $120/MWh and TAS at $115/MWh as of the 06:30 AEST reference period. Predispatch forecasts show two distinct low-price windows opening up today: an overnight trough from roughly 11:00-16:00 AEST (i.e. 01:00-06:00 UTC) and, more significantly, a deep midday solar trough from around 24:00-04:00 AEST tonight extending into tomorrow's early hours across VIC, SA and TAS.
The standout opportunity is the midday period, roughly 10:00 AEST through 04:00 AEST (14:00-18:00 UTC window in the data), where VIC, SA and TAS forecasts collapse to near-zero or negative pricing. VIC and SA both show forecast RRPs of $0.12-$10.50/MWh between 10:00 and 04:00 AEST, with SA troughing at $0.13/MWh at 02:00 AEST and VIC at $0.12-0.14/MWh in the same window — savings of $187-211/MWh versus this morning's peak. QLD offers the deepest and most sustained discount overnight, with forecast prices running negative from 09:00 through 16:00 AEST (11:00 PM-06:00 AEST UTC-equivalent), bottoming at -$6.78/MWh around 14:00-15:00 AEST, effectively paying flexible loads to consume. TAS shows a high-risk but very cheap window at 02:00 AEST ($2.14/MWh) — schedulers should treat this one with caution given its "high" risk flag, likely reflecting thin liquidity in that half-hour.
Regions to avoid loading in the near term: NSW and VIC both show a sharp price spike forecast around 18:30-21:00 AEST (08:30-11:00 UTC), with NSW forecast to hit $230/MWh and VIC $211/MWh, and SA following at $188/MWh in the same window — this is the morning demand ramp coinciding with limited rooftop solar offset given the low solar potential (BOM data shows 0-25% solar potential across NSW/VIC/SA today under mostly clear to overcast skies). A second, smaller peak also builds toward 21:00 AEST as the evening ramp approaches.
Recommendation: shift all deferrable industrial and commercial load into the 10:00-16:00 AEST window today, prioritising QLD (negative pricing, lowest risk) and SA/VIC (sub-$1/MWh troughs from 10:00 AEST). Avoid scheduling any material load in NSW, VIC or SA between 18:30 and 21:00 AEST, where forecast prices exceed $180-230/MWh. For batteries and EV fleets with overnight flexibility, the 11:00 AEST-04:00 AEST corridor tonight offers the best risk-adjusted savings NEM-wide, with QLD and SA presenting the strongest combination of depth and duration.