Load Advisor: Monday 3 August 2026
NEM-wide prices currently sit in the $88-130/MWh range, with WA1 leading at $130/MWh and TAS1 lowest of the mainland-linked regions at $88/MWh. QLD1 forecasts show negative pricing developing shortly, with predispatch troughs of -$6.50/MWh between 08:00-15:00 AEST — a strong signal for QLD-based flexible load (EV charging, batteries, pumped hydro, industrial process load) to shift into this window rather than run through the current evening peak.
Across all regions, the overnight-to-early-morning window (roughly 10:30-16:30 AEST) offers the deepest and most consistent savings. VIC1 posts the cheapest window at $10.50/MWh between 10:30-12:30 AEST, saving approximately $136/MWh versus current peak pricing. NSW1 and SA1 follow similar patterns, bottoming out around $17-24/MWh between 10:30-12:00 AEST, before climbing again into a secondary trough near $40-52/MWh through 12:00-15:30 AEST. TAS1's best window is slightly less pronounced at $12.59/MWh (10:30-12:00 AEST) but still delivers over $119/MWh in savings versus its evening peak. Note a brief high-risk price dip near 15:30-16:30 AEST across NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 (all near $5-28/MWh) — attractive on price but flagged high-risk in the forecast, likely reflecting fast-moving ramp conditions as the evening peak approaches.
Peak periods to avoid fall in two bands: the current evening peak (now through approximately 18:00 AEST tonight) where NSW1 and VIC1 forecast prices climbing to $127-136/MWh, and tomorrow's morning ramp from 17:30-01:00 AEST, where SA1 forecasts are particularly steep, reaching $170/MWh by 22:00 AEST and holding above $130/MWh through the morning peak. SA1 shows the widest peak-to-trough spread of any region today, making it the strongest candidate for aggressive load shifting — deferring 1 MW of flexible load from the SA1 evening peak into the 10:30-12:00 AEST window captures over $150/MWh in savings.
Recommended action: schedule flexible and interruptible load NEM-wide for the 10:30-16:30 AEST window (AEST times reflecting the 00:30-06:30 UTC data block), with QLD1 loads specifically targeting the 08:00-15:00 AEST negative-price period. Avoid dispatch during 17:30-19:00 AEST across NSW1, VIC1 and SA1, where predispatch forecasts converge on $120-170/MWh peaks. Treat the 15:30-16:30 AEST low-price windows in NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 as opportunistic only, given the high-risk flag attached to rapid price reversals in that period.